相关论文: A Bayesian Framework for Combining Valuation Estim…

Graphical models are widely used to make inferences concerning interplay in multivariate systems. In many applications, data are collected from multiple related but nonidentical units whose underlying networks may differ but are likely to…

Bayesian calibration of black-box computer models offers an established framework to obtain a posterior distribution over model parameters. Traditional Bayesian calibration involves the emulation of the computer model and an additive model…

We introduce methodology to bridge scenario analysis and model-based risk forecasting, leveraging their respective strengths in policy settings. Our Bayesian framework addresses the fundamental challenge of reconciling judgmental narrative…

We introduce a novel rule-based approach for handling regression problems. The new methodology carries elements from two frameworks: (i) it provides information about the uncertainty of the parameters of interest using Bayesian inference,…

Procedural material models have been gaining traction in many applications thanks to their flexibility, compactness, and easy editability. We explore the inverse rendering problem of procedural material parameter estimation from…

Combining predictions from different models is a central problem in Bayesian inference and machine learning more broadly. Currently, these predictive distributions are almost exclusively combined using linear mixtures such as Bayesian model…

We explore the performance of sample average approximation in comparison with several other methods for stochastic optimization when there is information available on the underlying true probability distribution. The methods we evaluate are…

Economic evaluations from individual-level data are an important component of the process of technology appraisal, with a view to informing resource allocation decisions. A critical problem in these analyses is that both effectiveness and…

This note is concerned with an accurate and computationally efficient variational bayesian treatment of mixed-effects modelling. We focus on group studies, i.e. empirical studies that report multiple measurements acquired in multiple…

Quantum parameter estimation offers solid conceptual grounds for the design of sensors enjoying quantum advantage. This is realised not only by means of hardware supporting and exploiting quantum properties, but data analysis has its impact…

Ensembling can improve the performance of Neural Networks, but existing approaches struggle when the architecture likelihood surface has dispersed, narrow peaks. Furthermore, existing methods construct equally weighted ensembles, and this…

Bayesian state and parameter estimation have been automated effectively in a variety of probabilistic programming languages. The process of model comparison on the other hand, which still requires error-prone and time-consuming manual…

Preferential Bayesian optimization allows optimization of objectives that are either expensive or difficult to measure directly, by relying on a minimal number of comparative evaluations done by a human expert. Generating candidate…

Estimating the parameters of mathematical models is a common problem in almost all branches of science. However, this problem can prove notably difficult when processes and model descriptions become increasingly complex and an explicit…

Peer grading systems aggregate noisy reports from multiple students to approximate a true grade as closely as possible. Most current systems either take the mean or median of reported grades; others aim to estimate students' grading…

Quantum phase estimation (QPE) is the key subroutine of several quantum computing algorithms as well as a central ingredient in quantum computational chemistry and quantum simulation. While QPE strategies have focused on the estimation of a…

Counterfactual explanations utilize feature perturbations to analyze the outcome of an original decision and recommend an actionable recourse. We argue that it is beneficial to provide several alternative explanations rather than a single…

Randomized experiments are the gold standard for evaluating the effects of changes to real-world systems. Data in these tests may be difficult to collect and outcomes may have high variance, resulting in potentially large measurement error.…

While perception tasks such as visual object recognition and text understanding play an important role in human intelligence, the subsequent tasks that involve inference, reasoning and planning require an even higher level of intelligence.…

Pricing assets has attracted significant attention from the financial technology community. We observe that the existing solutions overlook the cross-sectional effects and not fully leveraged the heterogeneous data sets, leading to…