相关论文: Modeling Hourly Ozone Concentration Fields

We develop Bayesian state space methods for modelling changes to the mean level or temporal correlation structure of an observed time series due to intermittent coupling with an unobserved process. Novel intervention methods are proposed to…

The spatial dependence of total column ozone varies strongly with latitude, so that homogeneous models (invariant to all rotations) are clearly unsuitable. However, an assumption of axial symmetry, which means that the process model is…

Surface ozone pollution remains a persistent challenge in many metropolitan regions worldwide, as the nonlinear dependence of ozone formation on nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) complicates the design of effective…

We propose a novel Bayesian methodology for analyzing nonstationary time series that exhibit oscillatory behaviour. We approximate the time series using a piecewise oscillatory model with unknown periodicities, where our goal is to estimate…

Ground-level ozone and particulate matter pollutants are associated with a variety of health issues and increased mortality. For this reason, Mexican environmental agencies regulate pollutant levels. In addition, Mexico City defines…

A neural network combined to a neural classifier is used in a real time forecasting of hourly maximum ozone in the centre of France, in an urban atmosphere. This neural model is based on the MultiLayer Perceptron (MLP) structure. The inputs…

Air pollution remains a major environmental risk factor that is often associated with adverse health outcomes. However, quantifying and evaluating its effects on human health is challenging due to the complex nature of exposure data. Recent…

We present and analyse observational data from a highly instrumented classroom computer laboratory and develop a multizone model to describe its mechanical ventilation and mixing regime. The laboratory houses 70 workstations that are used…

In economics we often face a system, which intrinsically imposes a structure of hierarchy of its components, i.e., in modelling trade accounts related to foreign exchange or in optimization of regional air protection policy. A problem of…

When assessing the short term effect of air pollution on health outcomes, it is common practice to consider one pollutant at a time, due to their high correlation. Multi pollutant methods have been recently proposed, mainly consisting of…

Chapman's model for ozone concentration is studied. In this nonlinear model, the photodissociation coefficients for $O_{2}$ and $O_{3}$ are time-depending due to earth-rotation. From the Kapitsa's method, valid in the high frequency limit,…

For hourly PM2.5 concentration prediction, accurately capturing the data patterns of external factors that affect PM2.5 concentration changes, and constructing a forecasting model is one of efficient means to improve forecasting accuracy.…

Tropospheric ozone (O3) is a greenhouse gas which can absorb heat and make the weather even hotter during extreme heatwaves. Besides, it is an influential ground-level air pollutant which can severely damage the environment. Thus evaluating…

In this work we introduce a class of dynamic models for time series taking values on the unit interval. The proposed model follows a generalized linear model approach where the random component, conditioned on the past information, follows…

Global ambient air pollution, a transboundary challenge, is typically addressed through interventions relying on data from spatially sparse and heterogeneously placed monitoring stations. These stations often encounter temporal data gaps…

Ozone and particulate matter PM2.5 are co-pollutants that have long been associated with increased public health risks. Information on concentration levels for both pollutants come from two sources: monitoring sites and output from complex…

Bayesian networks are powerful statistical models to study the probabilistic relationships among set random variables with major applications in disease modeling and prediction. Here, we propose a continuous time Bayesian network with…

We discuss model and forecast combination in time series forecasting. A foundational Bayesian perspective based on agent opinion analysis theory defines a new framework for density forecast combination, and encompasses several existing…

Both Bayesian and varying coefficient models are very useful tools in practice as they can be used to model parameter heterogeneity in a generalizable way. Motivated by the need of enhancing Marketing Mix Modeling at Uber, we propose a…

We design a novel, nonlinear single-source-of-error model for analysis of multiple business cycles. The model's specification is intended to capture key empirical characteristics of business cycle data by allowing for simultaneous cycles of…