相关论文: Simulation of Demographic Change in Palestinian Te…

Despite its historical and biological stability, the sex ratio at birth (SRB) has risen in parts of the world in the last several decades. The resultant demographic consequences, mostly on sex imbalance, are well documented, typically…

Countries like Poland with a recent sharp drop in birth rates still have some time to prepare for the problems of an ageing society. Ater the year 2030 they can become increasingly serious.

The probability of the survival of the population of individuals of both sexes of given mature age, procreation rate and structure stability has been searched in the numerical experiment. The populations with long period of reproduction and…

The issue of longevity has been long time recognized as one of key concepts in demography. A particular aspect of longevity addressed in this paper is the difference in average observed duration of life for female and male population,…

We perform stochastic microsimulations of the dynamics of England and Wales population after the British referendum on EU membership, considering different possible outcomes. Employing available survey data, we model the demographics of the…

We have simulated demographic changes in the human population using the Penna microscopic model, based on the simple Monte Carlo method. The results of simulations have shown that during a few generations changes in the genetic pool of a…

In this study, we forecast the population of the Philippines using a discrete age-structured compartmental model. We estimated the future population structure of the Philippines if the government imposes an n-child policy on top of the…

Demographics in Malaysia and Viet Nam are evolving rapidly, potentially disrupting traditional family support to older people. We estimate a set of Poisson random effects models with panel data from the Malaysia Ageing and Retirement Survey…

Fertility differentials by urban-rural residence and nativity of women in Australia significantly impact population composition at sub-national levels. We aim to provide consistent fertility forecasts for Australian women characterized by…

Motivated by the wide range of known self-replicating systems, some far from genetics, we study a system composed by individuals having an internal dynamics with many possible states that are partially stable, with varying mutation rates.…

The United Nations released official probabilistic population projections (PPP) for all countries for the first time in July 2014. These were obtained by projecting the period total fertility rate (TFR) and life expectancy at birth ($e_0$)…

The link between age and migration propensity is long established, but existing models of country-level net migration ignore the effect of population age distribution on past and projected migration rates. We propose a method to estimate…

Increasing evidence of the effects of changing climate on physical ocean conditions and long-term changes in fish populations adds to the need to understand the effects of stochastic forcing on marine populations. Cohort resonance is of…

Does bearing children shorten a woman's life expectancy? Several demographic studies, historic and current, have found no such effect. But the Caerphilly cohort study is far the most prominent and frequently-cited, and it answers in the…

We examine the dynamics of an age-structured population model in which the life expectancy of an offspring may be mutated with respect to that of the parent. While the total population of the system always reaches a steady state, the…

The original version of Bayesian reconstruction, a method for estimating age-specific fertility, mortality, migration and population counts of the recent past with uncertainty, produced estimates for female-only populations. Here we show…

We introduce a population-age-time (PAT) model which describes the temporal evolution of the population distribution in age. The surprising result is that the qualitative nature of the population distribution dynamics is robust with respect…

We describe the simulation method of modelling the population evolution using Monte Carlo based on the Penna model. Individuals in the populations are represented by their diploid genomes. Genes expressed after the minimum reproduction age…

Analysing age-specific mortality, fertility, and migration patterns is a crucial task in demography with significant policy relevance. In practice, such analysis is challenging when studying a large number of subpopulations, due to small…

This paper considers a nonlinear model for population dynamics with age structure. The fertility rate with respect to age is non constant and has the form proposed by [17]. Moreover, its multiplicative structure and the multiplicative…