相关论文: Probabilita` e Paradosso (Probability and Paradox)

The process of doing Science in condition of uncertainty is illustrated with a toy experiment in which the inferential and the forecasting aspects are both present. The fundamental aspects of probabilistic reasoning, also relevant in real…

This is an introduction to some of the most probabilistic aspects of free probability theory.

In this paper three unrelated problems will be discussed. What connects them is the rich methodology of classical probability theory. In the first two problems we have a complete answer to the problems raised; in the third case, what we…

This paper presents duality between probability distributions and utility functions.

Well known Simpson's paradox is puzzling and surprising for many, especially for the empirical researchers and users of statistics. However there is no surprise as far as mathematical details are concerned. A lot more is written about the…

We highlight the different uses of the word 'likelihood' that have arisen in statistics and meteorology, and make the recommendation that one of these uses should be dropped to prevent confusion and misunderstanding.

This article discusses some important applications of the quadratic function with the aim of highlighting the importance of cuadr\'aticas.- forms are also intended to show how a simple function covers virtually all areas of knowledge are…

The two envelopes paradox is discussed. By calculating the conditional probability, we arrive at a conditional expectations which differs from existing results.

This paper is an attempt to bring together two approaches to language analysis. The possible use of probabilistic information in principle-based grammars and parsers is considered, including discussion on some theoretical and computational…

Classes of linguistic paradoxes and linguistic tautologies are introduced with examples and explanations. They are part of the author's work on the Paradoxist Philosophy based on mathematical logic. The general cases exposed below are…

A simple classical probabilistic system (a simple card game) classically exemplifies Aharonov and Vaidman's "Three-Box 'paradox'" [J. Phys. A 24, 2315 (1991)], implying that the Three-Box example is neither quantal nor a paradox and leaving…

A classical probabilistic explanation for Hardy's quantum paradox is demonstrated.

The ideas here are a continuation of a previous article. Some of the applications of the main ideas in the previous article are explained, along with some limitations of the general ideas. There are situations where additional hypotheses…

Notes for a Course on Probability and Statistics: L1: Elements of Probability; L2: Bayesian Inference; L3: Monte Carlo Methods

This paper is motivated by the questions of how to give the concept of probability an adequate real-world meaning, and how to explain a certain type of phenomenon that can be found, for instance, in Ellsberg's paradox. It attempts to answer…

In this pedagogical text aimed at those wanting to start thinking about or brush up on probabilistic inference, I review the rules by which probability distribution functions can (and cannot) be combined. I connect these rules to the…

This chapter presents probability logic as a rationality framework for human reasoning under uncertainty. Selected formal-normative aspects of probability logic are discussed in the light of experimental evidence. Specifically, probability…

Uncertainty enters into human reasoning and inference in at least two ways. It is reasonable to suppose that there will be roles for these distinct uses of uncertainty also in automated reasoning.

In many applications of the probabilistic method, one looks to study phenomena that occur ``with high probability''. More recently however, in an attempt to understand some of the most fundamental problems in combinatorics, researchers have…

The paradoxes of thermodynamics and statistical physics are unavoidable in the study of physical paradoxes because of their importance at the time they came to be as well as the frequency of their appearance in historical studies of…