相关论文: Probabilita` e Paradosso (Probability and Paradox)

I think we can agree that dealing with uncertainty is not easy. Probability is the main tool for dealing with uncertainty, and we know there are many probability-related puzzles and paradoxes. Here I describe a rather idiosyncratic…

There are two main approach to probability, one of set-theoretic character where probability is the measure of a set, and another one of linguistic character where probability is the degree of confidence in a proposition. In this work we…

Within classical propositional logic, assigning probabilities to formulas is shown to be equivalent to assigning probabilities to valuations. A novel notion of probabilistic entailment enjoying desirable properties of logical consequence is…

In this chapter, a statistical measure of complexity is introduced and some of its properties are discussed. Also, some straightforward applications are shown.

Probabilistic forecasts are becoming more and more available. How should they be used and communicated? What are the obstacles to their use in practice? I review experience with five problems where probabilistic forecasting played an…

Computing the probability of a formula given the probabilities or weights associated with other formulas is a natural extension of logical inference to the probabilistic setting. Surprisingly, this problem has received little attention in…

This is a very basic introduction to some notions related to logic and complexity.

The idea of fully accepting statements when the evidence has rendered them probable enough faces a number of difficulties. We leave the interpretation of probability largely open, but attempt to suggest a contextual approach to full belief.…

We propose two distinct interpretations of extended probabilities which are realistic for the physical world.

This study has the purpose of addressing four questions that lie at the base of the probability theory and statistics, and includes two main steps. As first, we conduct the textual analysis of the most significant works written by eminent…

The computational method of parametric probability analysis is introduced. It is demonstrated how to embed logical formulas from the propositional calculus into parametric probability networks, thereby enabling sound reasoning about the…

The apparently trifling unexpected hanging paradox has generated an enormous philosophical literature. We introduce the mathematician to this literature, paying special attention to aspects that involve nontrivial mathematics. This xxx…

Math is widely considered as a powerful tool and its strong appeal depends on the high level of abstraction it allows in modelling a huge number of heterogeneous phenomena and problems, spanning from the static of buildings to the flight of…

I review the classical theory of likelihood based inference and consider how it is being extended and developed for use in complex models and sampling schemes.

Various semantics for studying the square of opposition and the hexagon of opposition have been proposed recently. We interpret sentences by imprecise (set-valued) probability assessments on a finite sequence of conditional events. We…

In this short review, I will summarize my research experience in three fields in applied mathematics: mathematical biology, applied probability, and applied discrete mathematics. Specifically, I will show how each project was initiated, and…

Likelihood ratio tests are intuitively appealing. Nevertheless, a number of examples are known in which they perform very poorly. The present paper discusses a large class of situations in which this is the case, and analyzes just how…

This short note introduces a formal system of truth and paradoxicality, outlining the main motivation, and proving its $\omega$-consistency. The system is called TP, for 'Truth and Paradoxicality'.

Probabilistic programming is a growing area that strives to make statistical analysis more accessible, by separating probabilistic modelling from probabilistic inference. In practice this decoupling is difficult. No single inference…

We show that a conceptually simple covering technique has surprisingly rich applications to density theorems and conjectures on patterns in sets involving set differences. These applications fall into three categories: (i) analogues of…