经济学
This paper studies learning in markets with aggregate uncertainty about whether trade is efficient. A long-lived seller offers prices to buyers, who are short-lived and arrive according to a Poisson process. A hidden state determines…
This paper studies the robustness of quasi-maximum-likelihood (QML) estimation in hidden Markov models (HMMs) when the regime-switching structure is misspecified. Specifically, we examine the case where the true data-generating process…
We study how motivated reasoning affects the provision of climate policy in an electoral competition framework. Voters experience anticipatory disutility when future outcomes appear grim and may therefore distort beliefs in response to…
We consider impulse response inference in a locally misspecified vector autoregression (VAR) model. The conventional local projection (LP) confidence interval has correct coverage even when the misspecification is so large that it can be…
We provide ex-post empirical analysis of the effects of climate policies on carbon dioxide emissions at the aggregate national level. Our results are based on a comprehensive database of 121 countries. As climate policies we examine carbon…
This paper proposes a local projection residual bootstrap method to construct confidence intervals for impulse response coefficients of AR(1) models. Our bootstrap method is based on the local projection (LP) approach and involves a…
This study explores the marriage matching of only-child individuals and its outcome. Specifically, we analyze two aspects. First, we investigate how marital status (i.e., marriage with an only child, that with a non-only child and remaining…
Panel data often contain stayers (units with no within-variations) and slow movers (units with little within-variations). In the presence of many slow movers, conventional econometric methods can fail to work. We propose a novel method of…
Carbon taxes are increasingly popular among policymakers but remain politically contentious. A key challenge relates to their distributional impacts; the extent to which tax burdens differ across population groups. As a response, a growing…
Generative AI systems often display highly uneven performance across tasks that appear ``nearby'': they can be excellent on one prompt and confidently wrong on another with only small changes in wording or context. We call this phenomenon…
This note revisits the analysis of third-degree price discrimination developed by Bergemann et al. (2015), which characterizes the set of consumer-producer surplus pairs that can be achieved through market segmentation. This was proved by…
Forecasting entails a complex estimation challenge, as it requires balancing multiple, often conflicting, priorities and objectives. Traditional forecast optimization criteria typically focus on a single metric -- such as minimizing the…
In normative models a decision-maker is usually assumed to be Bayesian rational, and so to maximize subjective expected utility, within a complete and correctly specified decision model. Following the discussion in Hammond (2007) of…
This paper formalizes a widely used dynamical class--replicator-mutator dynamics and Price-style selection-and-transmission--and makes explicit the modeling choices (scale, atomic unit, interaction topology, transmission kernel) that…
We propose a method for estimating long-term treatment effects with many short-term proxy outcomes: a central challenge when experimenting on digital platforms. We formalize this challenge as a latent variable problem where observed proxies…
A central socioeconomic concern about Artificial Intelligence is that it will lower wages by depressing the labor share - the fraction of economic output paid to labor. We show that declining labor share is more likely to raise wages. In a…
We consider the extent to which we can learn from a completely randomized experiment whether all individuals have treatment effects that are weakly of the same sign, a condition we call monotonicity. From a classical sampling perspective,…
Do Ethereum's Layer-2 (L2) rollups actually decongest the Layer-1 (L1) mainnet once protocol upgrades and demand are held constant? Using a 1245-day daily panel from August 5, 2021 to December 31, 2024 that spans the London, Merge, and…
We propose a new approach to estimate selection-corrected quantiles of the gender wage gap. Our method employs instrumental variables that explain variation in the latent variable but, conditional on the latent process, do not directly…
How should researchers analyze randomized experiments in which the main outcome is latent and measured in multiple ways but each measure contains some degree of error? We first identify a critical study-specific noncomparability problem in…