经济学
We extend well-known comparative results under expected utility to models of non-expected utility by providing novel conditions on local utility functions. We illustrate how our results parallel, and are distinct from, existing results for…
The causalfe package provides a Python implementation of Causal Forests with Fixed Effects (CFFE) for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in panel data settings. Standard causal forest methods struggle with panel data because unit…
This paper develops semiparametric methods for estimation and inference of widely used inequality measures when survey data are subject to nonignorable nonresponse, a challenging setting in which response probabilities depend on the…
We study the drivers and spatial diffusion of U.S. state population growth using a dynamic spatial model for 49 states, 1965-2017. Methodologically, we recover the spatial network structure from the data, rather than imposing it a priori…
Many economically relevant variables (risk, confidence, uncertainty) are latent and therefore not directly observable, which creates identification challenges in applied regressions. This text formalizes how omitting latent factors…
The asset pricing literature emphasizes factor models that minimize pricing errors but overlooks unselected candidate factors that could enhance the performance of test assets. This paper proposes a framework for factor model selection and…
This paper reviews the main network analysis methods used to measure structural power, which refers to the ability to shape outcomes through network position and influence, and the ability to affect others through network connections. These…
We study voluntary disclosure with multiple biased senders who may bear costs for disclosing or concealing their private information. Under relevant assumptions, disclosures are strategic substitutes under a disclosure cost but complements…
This paper proposes corrected forecast combinations when the original combined forecast errors are serially dependent. Motivated by the classic Bates and Granger (1969) example, we show that combined forecast errors can be strongly…
Fisheries are vulnerable to environmental shocks that impact stock health and fisher income. Index insurance is a promising financial tool to protect fishers from environmental risk. However, insurance may change fisher's behavior. It is…
This chapter develops a unified framework for studying misspecified learning situations in which agents optimize and update beliefs within an incorrect model of their environment. We review the statistical foundations of learning from…
The drift burst hypothesis postulates the existence of short-lived locally explosive trends in the price paths of financial assets. The recent U.S. equity and treasury flash crashes can be viewed as two high-profile manifestations of such…
Corporate earnings announcements unpack large bundles of public information that should, in efficient markets, trigger jumps in stock prices. Testing this implication is difficult in practice, as it requires noisy high-frequency data from…
We introduce a parsimonious multi-sector model of international production and use it to study the impact of a disruption in the production of some goods propagates to other goods and consumers, and how that impact depends on the goods'…
We propose a difference-in-differences (DiD) framework designed for time-varying continuous treatments across multiple periods. Specifically, we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated (ATET) by comparing distinct non-zero…
We develop a model for point processes on the real line, where the intensity can be locally unbounded without inducing an explosion. In contrast to an orderly point process, for which the probability of observing more than one event over a…
The association between log-price increments of exchange-traded equities, as measured by their spot correlation estimated from high-frequency data, exhibits a pronounced upward-sloping and almost piecewise linear relationship at the…
This paper studies inference in two-stage randomized experiments under covariate-adaptive randomization. In the initial stage of this experimental design, clusters (e.g., households, schools, or graph partitions) are stratified and randomly…
This paper studies the optimal mechanism to motivate effort in a dynamic principal-agent model without transfers. An agent is engaged in a task with uncertain future rewards and can quit at any time. The principal knows the reward and…
The Journal Impact Factor (IF), as a core indicator of academic evaluation, has not been systematically studied in relation to its historical evolution and global macroeconomic environment. This paper employs a period-based regression…