经济学
We investigate Gale's important paper published in 1960. This paper contains an example of a candidate of the demand function that satisfies the weak axiom of revealed preference and that is doubtful that it is a demand function of some…
Factor models for longitudinal data, where policy adoption is unconfounded with respect to a low-dimensional set of latent factor loadings, have become increasingly popular for causal inference. Most existing approaches, however, rely on a…
We assess the broad repercussions of Yemen's 2011 revolution and subsequent civil war on its macroeconomic trajectories, human development, and quality of governance by constructing counterfactual benchmarks using a balanced panel of 37…
This study investigates the labor market consequences of AI by analyzing near real-time changes in employment status and work hours across occupations in relation to advances in AI capabilities. We construct a dynamic Occupational AI…
We study the long-term health and human capital impacts of local economic conditions experienced during the first 1,000 days of life. We combine historical data on monthly unemployment rates in urban England and Wales 1952-1967 with data…
Understanding firm conduct is crucial for industrial organization and antitrust policy. In this article, we develop a testing procedure based on the Rivers and Vuong non-nested model selection framework. Unlike existing methods that require…
This paper introduces a novel method for estimating material flows, with a focus on tracing phosphate flows from mining countries to those using phosphate in agricultural production. Our approach integrates data on phosphate rock…
This paper introduces a definition of ideological polarization of an electorate around a particular central point. By being flexible about the location or width of the center, this measure enables the researcher to analyze polarization…
This paper studies matching markets where institutions are matched with possibly more than one individual. The matching market contains some couples who view the pair of jobs as complements. First, we show by means of an example that a…
We study many-to-one matching problems between institutions and individuals, where each institution may be matched to multiple individuals. The matching market includes couples, who view pairs of institutions as complementary. Institutions'…
With stakeholder-level in-market data, we conduct a comparative analysis of machine learning (ML) for forecasting electricity prices in Singapore, spanning 15 individual models and 4 ensemble approaches. Our empirical findings justify the…
This paper develops a high-frequency economic indicator using a Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model estimated with mixed-frequency data. The model incorporates weekly, monthly, and quarterly official indicators, and allows for dynamic…
Which level of voting costs is optimal in a democracy? This paper argues that intermediate voting costs - what we term a "Midcost democracy" - should be avoided, as they fail to ensure that electoral outcomes reflect the preferences of the…
We study the identification of dynamic discrete choice models with sophisticated, quasi-hyperbolic time preferences under exclusion restrictions. We consider both standard finite horizon problems and empirically useful infinite horizon…
Historical trends suggest the decline in importance of land as a production factor but its continued importance as a store of value. Using an overlapping generations model with land and aggregate uncertainty, we theoretically study the…
Generalized and Simulated Method of Moments are often used to estimate structural Economic models. Yet, it is commonly reported that optimization is challenging because the corresponding objective function is non-convex. For smooth…
We study a game between $N$ job applicants who incur a cost $c$ (relative to the job value) to reveal their type during interviews and an administrator who seeks to maximize the probability of hiring the best. We define a full learning…
This paper develops a theoretical and formal response to the collapse in the marginal cost of ideation caused by artificial intelligence (AI). In challenging the foundational assumption of knowledge scarcity, the paper argues that the key…
This paper undertakes an analysis of deforestation in the Amazon area using a pathways-based approach to sustainability. We ground the analysis primarily in the sustainability transitions literature but also draw a bridge with…
This paper investigates the structural interpretation of the marginal policy effect (MPE) within nonseparable models. We demonstrate that, for a smooth functional of the outcome distribution, the MPE equals its functional derivative…