经济学
Inflation forecasting is a core socio-economic challenge in modern macroeconomic modeling, especially when cyclical, structural, and shock factors act simultaneously. Traditional systems such as FPAS and ARIMA often struggle with cyclical…
This study examines the relationship between Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements and financial market network structure through spectral graph theory. Using hypergraph networks constructed from S\&P 100 stocks around FOMC…
Some analyses suggest that drought in Syria during 2007-10 may have contributed to the 2011 onset of its civil war and that anthropogenic climate change had a detectable impact on the severity of that drought. Yet these qualitative…
This paper examines the impact of electric vehicles on total annual electricity consumption across 58 counties in California from 2010 to 2021. Employing a log linear model to analyze the relationship between electricity consumption and EV…
Pre-analysis plans (PAPs) have become standard in experimental economics research, but it is nevertheless common to see researchers deviating from their PAPs to supplement preregistered estimates with non-prespecified findings. While such…
This paper estimates the effect of Generative AI (GenAI) adoption on scientific productivity and quality in the social and behavioral sciences. Using matched author-level panel data and a difference-in-differences design, we find that GenAI…
Scholars and policymakers have vigorously debated what the impact of government spending on economic growth is. Some current research and theoretical models suggest that the reaction of economic growth to the extension of government…
With rising concerns about climate change, the issue of green growth have been growing in importance. The aim of this study is to establish a measurement method for green growth, and to identify the best performing countries in this field.…
Hungary's convergence to the developed western economies have been much slower than initially expected. Applying the FOI model, this study investigates whether there were any changes in the convergence process during the second decade of…
The classic first-order approach (FOA) relaxes the principal-agent problem by replacing the incentive compatibility (IC) constraint with its first-order condition. We show that FOA is not a valid relaxation when the support of the outcome…
Deviations from Bayesian updating are traditionally categorized as biases, errors, or fallacies, thus implying their inherent ``sub-optimality.'' We offer a more nuanced view. We demonstrate that, in learning problems with misspecified…
This paper examines optimal risk sharing for empirically realistic risk attitudes, providing results on Pareto optimality, competitive equilibria, utility frontiers, and the first and second theorems of welfare. Contrary to common…
This work outlines the modeling steps for developing a tool aimed at supporting policymakers in guiding policies toward more sustainable wheat production. In the agricultural sector,policies affect a highly diverse set of farms, which…
This paper examines the impact of temperature shocks on European Parliament elections. We combine high-resolution climate data with results from parliamentary elections between 1989 and 2019, aggregated at the NUTS-2 regional level.…
Equity markets have long been regarded as unpredictable, with intraday price movements treated as stochastic noise. This study challenges that view by introducing the Extended Samuelson Model (ESM), a natural science-based framework that…
We study information disclosure in competitive markets with adverse selection. Sellers privately observe product quality, with higher quality entailing higher production costs, while buyers trade at the market-clearing price after observing…
Previous research indicates that zero tillage technology offers a profitable alternative to crop residue burning, with significant potential to reduce agricultural emissions and contribute to improvements in air quality and public health.…
Ensuring efficiency and envy-freeness in allocating indivisible goods without money often requires randomization. However, existing combinatorial assignment mechanisms (for applications such as course allocation, food banks, and refugee…
We build on theoretical results from the mechanism design literature to analyze empirical models of second-degree price discrimination (2PD). We show that for a random-coefficients discrete choice ("BLP") model to be suitable for studying…
This paper studies the partial identification of treatment effects in Instrumental Variables (IV) settings with binary outcomes under violations of independence. I derive the identified sets for the treatment parameters of interest in the…