机器学习

The topic of Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection (MTSAD) has grown rapidly over the past years, with a steady rise in publications and Deep Learning (DL) models becoming the dominant paradigm. To address the lack of systematization…

We propose a new method for statistical inference in generalized linear models. In the overparameterized regime, Principal Component Regression (PCR) reduces variance by projecting high-dimensional data to a low-dimensional principal…

Probabilistic electricity price forecasting (PEPF) is vital for short-term electricity markets, yet the multivariate nature of day-ahead prices - spanning 24 consecutive hours - remains underexplored. At the same time, real-time…

We study online assortment optimization under stochastic choice when a decision maker simultaneously values cumulative revenue performance and the quality of post-hoc inference on revenue contrasts. We analyze a forced-exploration…

Large-scale streaming data are common in modern machine learning applications and have led to the development of online learning algorithms. Many fields, such as supply chain management, weather and meteorology, energy markets, and finance,…

Statistical learning is the process of estimating an unknown probabilistic input-output relationship of a system using a limited number of observations. A statistical learning machine (SLM) is the algorithm, function, model, or rule, that…

Geographic context is often consider relevant to motor insurance risk, yet public actuarial datasets provide limited location identifiers, constraining how this information can be incorporated and evaluated in claim-frequency models. This…

Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) provides a rigorous framework for decision-making tasks in which data acquisition is often the critical bottleneck, especially in resource-constrained settings. Traditionally, BOED typically…

In this paper, we make the case that a scientific theory of deep learning is emerging. By this we mean a theory which characterizes important properties and statistics of the training process, hidden representations, final weights, and…

Multivariate conformal prediction requires nonconformity scores that compress residual vectors into scalars while preserving certain implicit geometric structure of the residual distribution. We introduce a Multivariate Kernel Score (MKS)…

In many application domains (e.g., recommender systems, intelligent tutoring systems), the rewards associated to the actions tend to decrease over time. This decay is either caused by the actions executed in the past (e.g., a user may get…

There has been remarkable progress over the past decade in establishing finite-sample, non-asymptotic bounds on recovering unknown system parameters from observed system behavior. Surprisingly, however, we show that the current…

We study semisupervised mean estimation with a small labeled sample, a large unlabeled sample, and a black-box prediction model whose output may be miscalibrated. A standard approach in this setting is augmented inverse-probability…

We study online inference and asymptotic covariance estimation for the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm. While classical methods (such as plug-in and batch-means estimators) are available, they either require inaccessible…

Chaos arises in many complex dynamical systems, from weather to power grids, but is difficult to accurately model using data-driven emulators, including neural operator architectures. For chaotic systems, the inherent sensitivity to initial…

We study the community detection problem in the non-uniform hypergraph stochastic block model (HSBM), where hyperedges of varying sizes coexist. This setting captures higher-order and multi-view interactions and raises a fundamental…

In this paper, it is shown, for the first time, that centralized performance is achievable in decentralized learning without sharing the local datasets. Specifically, when clients adopt an empirical risk minimization with relative-entropy…

Independent component analysis is a core framework within blind source separation for recovering latent source signals from observed mixtures under statistical independence assumptions. In this work, we propose PDGMM-VAE, a source-oriented…

We present a theory-guided generalized Bayesian methodology for spatio-temporal raster data, which we use to train an ensemble of stochastic feed-forward neural networks with Gaussian-distributed weights. The methodology incorporates the…

Despite the remarkable empirical success of score-based diffusion models, their statistical guarantees remain underdeveloped. Existing analyses often provide pessimistic convergence rates that do not reflect the intrinsic low-dimensional…