统计计算

The intrinsic dimensionality of an inverse problem is affected by prior information, the accuracy and number of observations, and the smoothing properties of the forward operator. From a Bayesian perspective, changes from the prior to the…

One of the major challenges in the Bayesian solution of inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) is the computational cost of repeatedly evaluating numerical PDE models, as required by Markov chain Monte Carlo…

We show that the auxiliary variable method (M{\o}ller et al., 2006; Murray et al., 2006) for inference of Markov random fields can be viewed as an approximate Bayesian computation method for likelihood estimation.

A spectral approach to Bayesian inference is presented. It pursues the emulation of the posterior probability density. The starting point is a series expansion of the likelihood function in terms of orthogonal polynomials. From this…

We view the penalty algorithm of Ceperley and Dewing (1999), a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for Bayesian inference, in the context of data privacy. Specifically, we study differential privacy of the penalty algorithm and…

Several probability distributions have been proposed in the literature, especially with the aim of obtaining models that are more flexible relative to the behaviors of the density and hazard rate functions. Recently, a new generalization of…

We consider the task of generating discrete-time realisations of a nonlinear multivariate diffusion process satisfying an It\^o stochastic differential equation conditional on an observation taken at a fixed future time-point. Such…

Let $\mathcal{P}_{2,ac}$ be the set of Borel probabilities on $\mathbb{R}^d$ with finite second moment and absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue measure. We consider the problem of finding the barycenter (or Fr\'echet mean) of a…

We propose two new Bayesian smoothing methods for general state-space models with unknown parameters. The first approach is based on the particle learning and smoothing algorithm, but with an adjustment in the backward resampling weights.…

Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) are extensively used in statistics to model area-based data and usually depend on several parameters in order to capture complex spatial correlations. In this context, it is important to determine the…

An important task of uncertainty quantification is to identify {the probability of} undesired events, in particular, system failures, caused by various sources of uncertainties. In this work we consider the construction of Gaussian…

This paper deals with Gibbs samplers that include high dimensional conditional Gaussian distributions. It proposes an efficient algorithm that avoids the high dimensional Gaussian sampling and relies on a random excursion along a small set…

Targets that generate multiple measurements at a given instant in time are commonly known as extended targets. These present a challenge for many tracking algorithms, as they violate one of the key assumptions of the standard measurement…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, such as the particle filter, are by now one of the standard computational techniques for addressing the filtering problem in general state-space models. However, many applications require…

Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models arise in numerous applications in statistics and signal processing. In this context, one of the most successful and popular approximation techniques is the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm,…

In this work we present the results of several simulations on main-effect factorial designs. The goal of such simulations is to investigate the connections between the $D$-optimality of a design and its geometrical structure. By means of a…

Gaussian processes allow for flexible specification of prior assumptions of unknown dynamics in state space models. We present a procedure for efficient Bayesian learning in Gaussian process state space models, where the representation is…

Approximate Bayes Computations (ABC) are used for parameter inference when the likelihood function of the model is expensive to evaluate but relatively cheap to sample from. In particle ABC, an ensemble of particles in the product space of…

Alphabetic optimality criteria, such as the $D$, $A$, and $I$ criteria, require specifying a model to select optimal designs. They are not model free and the optimal designs selected by them are not robust to model uncertainty. Recently,…

Simulating samples from arbitrary probability distributions is a major research program of statistical computing. Recent work has shown promise in an old idea, that sampling from a discrete distribution can be accomplished by perturbing and…