应用统计
The stock assessment model SAM contains a large number of age-dependent parameters that must be manually grouped together to obtain robust inference. This can make the model selection process slow, non-extensive and highly subjective, while…
Ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the primary tools for investigating climate sensitivity, projecting future climate states, and quantifying uncertainty. GCM ensembles are subject to substantial uncertainty due to model…
We show that individual, confidential microdata records from the 2010 U.S. Census of Population and Housing can be accurately reconstructed from the published tabular summaries. Ninety-seven million person records (every resident in 70% of…
The County Lines Model (CLM) is a relatively new illicit drugs distribution method found in Great Britain. The CLM has brought modern slavery and public health issues, while challenging the law-enforcement capacity to act, as coordination…
Understanding the structure of our universe and the distribution of matter is an area of active research. As cosmological surveys grow in complexity, the development of emulators to efficiently and effectively predict matter power spectra…
Mathematical models are a powerful tool to study infectious disease dynamics and intervention strategies against them in social systems. However, due to their detailed implementation and steep computational requirements, practitioners and…
An approach to amputation, the process of introducing missing values to a complete dataset, is presented. It allows to construct missingness indicators in a flexible and principled way via copulas and Bernoulli margins and to incorporate…
Characterising the interactions between spiking neurons is central to our understanding of cognitive processes such as memory, perception and decision making. In this work, we consider the problem of inferring connectivity in the brain…
Age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) provide the most extensive record of reproductive change, but their aggregate nature obscures the individual-level behavioral mechanisms that drive fertility trends. To bridge this micro-macro divide, we…
Given a multivariate function taking deterministic and uncertain inputs, we consider the problem of estimating a quantile set: a set of deterministic inputs for which the probability that the output belongs to a specific region remains…
In this paper, gradient boosting is used to forecast the Q(.95) values of air temperature and the Steadman Heat Index. Paris, France during late the spring and summer months is the major focus. Predictors and responses are drawn from the…
Identifying the optimal diagnostic test and hardware system instance to infer reliability characteristics using field data is challenging, especially when constrained by fixed budgets and minimal maintenance cycles. Active Learning (AL) has…
In this paper, we step back from a variety of competing heat wave definitions and forecast directly unusually high temperatures. Our testbed is the Russian Far East in the summers of 2022 and 2023. Remotely sensed data from NASA's Aqua…
Attribution of climate impacts to natural and anthropogenic source forcings is essential for understanding and addressing climate effects. While standard methods like optimal fingerprinting have been effective for long-term changes, they…
This paper explores a comprehensive class of time-changed stochastic processes constructed by subordinating Brownian motion with Levy processes, where the subordination is further governed by stochastic arrival mechanisms such as the Cox…
Regression models were evaluated to estimate stand-level growing stock volume (GSV), quadratic mean diameter (QMD), basal area (BA), and stem density (N) in the Brixen im Thale forest district of Austria. Field measurements for GSV, QMD,…
We use causal inference to study how designing ballots with and without party designations impacts electoral outcomes when partisan voters rely on party-order cues to infer candidate affiliation in races without designations. If the party…
National Forest Inventories (NFIs) provide statistically reliable information on forest resources at national and other large spatial scales. As forest management and conservation needs become increasingly complex, NFIs are being called…
Acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) is a type of blood and bone marrow cancer characterized by the proliferation of abnormal clonal haematopoietic cells in the bone marrow leading to bone marrow failure. Over the course of the disease, angiogenic…
The brain is often studied from a network perspective, where functional activity is assessed using functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) to estimate connectivity between predefined neuronal regions. Functional connectivity can be…