应用统计
Hazard event sets, a collection of synthetic extreme events over a given period, are important for catastrophe modelling. This paper addresses the issue of generating event sets of extreme river flow for northern England and southern…
This paper considers the problem of forecasting mortality rates. A large number of models have already been proposed for this task, but they generally have the disadvantage of either estimating the model in a two-step process, possibly…
Outcome phenotype measurement error is rarely corrected in comparative effect estimation studies in observational pharmacoepidemiology. Quantitative bias analysis (QBA) is a misclassification correction method that algebraically adjusts…
It is ever more common in scientific publishing to ask authors to suggest some reviewers for their own manuscripts. The question then arises: How many submissions does it take to discover friendly suggested reviewers? To answer this…
In this paper we propose univariate volatility models for irregularly spaced financial time series by modifying the regularly spaced stochastic volatility models. We also extend this approach to propose multivariate stochastic volatility…
Travel time derivatives are financial instruments that derive their value from road travel times, serving as an underlying asset that cannot be directly traded. Within the transportation domain, these derivatives are proposed as a more…
This paper shows that the Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (PMBM) density is a multi-target conjugate prior for general target-generated measurement distributions and arbitrary clutter distributions. That is, for this multi-target…
An influential step in weather forecasting was the introduction of ensemble forecasts in operational use due to their capability to account for the uncertainties in the future state of the atmosphere. However, ensemble weather forecasts are…
Econometric models of strategic interactions among people or firms have received a great deal of attention in the literature. Less attention has been paid to the role of the underlying assumptions about the way agents form beliefs about…
Electroencephalogram (EEG) provides noninvasive measures of brain activity and is found to be valuable for diagnosis of some chronic disorders. Specifically, pre-treatment EEG signals in alpha and theta frequency bands have demonstrated…
As a solution to methodologic challenges inherent to estimating causal effects of exposures in early pregnancy, we suggest emulating a target trial using a treatment decision design, wherein time zero is centered around clinical landmarks…
Modern health care systems are conducting continuous, automated surveillance of the electronic medical record (EMR) to identify adverse events with increasing frequency; however, many events such as sepsis do not have elucidated prodromes…
Studies of alcohol and drug use are often interested in the number of days that people use the substance of interest over an interval, such as 28 days before a survey date. Although count models are often used for this purpose, they are not…
This paper studies the relationship between basketball teams' four factors and efficiency ratings as defined by Oliver (2004). The paper introduces an equation showing how a team's four factors in conjunction with its field goal and free…
Tumor heterogeneity is a challenge to designing effective and targeted therapies. Glioma-type identification depends on specific molecular and histological features, which are defined by the official WHO classification CNS. These guidelines…
Markov Switching models have had increasing success in time series analysis due to their ability to capture the existence of unobserved discrete states in the dynamics of the variables under study. This result is generally obtained thanks…
Atmospheric aerosols influence the Earth's climate, primarily by affecting cloud formation and scattering visible radiation. However, aerosol-related physical processes in climate simulations are highly uncertain. Constraining these…
This study proposes a simulation framework of procurement operations in the container logistics industry that can support the development of dynamic procurement strategies. The idea is inspired by the success of Passenger Origin-Destination…
In this paper are used historical statistical data to track the evolution of the game in the European-wide top-tier level professional basketball club competition (until 2017-2018 season) and also are answered questions by analyzing them.…
Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are increasingly prevalent in education research, and are often regarded as a gold standard of causal inference. Two main virtues of randomized experiments are that they (1) do not suffer from…