应用统计
Bayesian predictive probabilities are commonly used for interim monitoring of clinical trials through efficacy and futility stopping rules. Despite their usefulness, calculation of predictive probabilities, particularly in pre-experiment…
Researchers have focused on understanding how individual's behavior is influenced by the behaviors of their peers in observational studies of social networks. Identifying and estimating causal peer influence, however, is challenging due to…
Computed tomography (CT) imaging of the thorax is widely used for the detection and monitoring of pulmonary embolism (PE). However, CT images can contain artifacts due to the acquisition or the processes involved in image reconstruction.…
Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is the progressive form of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and a disease with high unmet medical need. Platform trials provide great benefits for sponsors and trial participants in terms of…
We study the problem of data-driven background estimation, arising in the search of physics signals predicted by the Standard Model at the Large Hadron Collider. Our work is motivated by the search for the production of pairs of Higgs…
The dependence in the tails of the joint distribution of two random variables is generally assessed using $\chi$-measure, the limiting conditional probability of one variable being extremely high given the other variable is also extremely…
A quick count seeks to estimate the voting trends of an election and communicate them to the population on the evening of the same day of the election. In quick counts, the sampling is based on a stratified design of polling stations.…
Stillbirth and preterm birth are major public health challenges. Using a Bayesian spatial model, we quantified patient-specific and neighborhood risks of stillbirth and preterm birth in the city of Philadelphia. We linked birth data from…
Information of 1.6 million patients identified as SARS-CoV-2 positive in Mexico is used to understand the relationship between comorbidities, symptoms, hospitalizations and deaths due to the COVID-19 disease. Using the presence or absence…
Neighborhood-level screening algorithms are increasingly being deployed to inform policy decisions. We evaluate one such algorithm, CalEnviroScreen - designed to promote environmental justice and used to guide hundreds of millions of…
We perform an exploratory data analysis on a data-set for the top 16 professional darts players from the 2019 season. We use this data-set to fit player skill models which can then be used in dynamic zero-sum games (ZSGs) that model…
We present a comprehensive Bayesian approach to paleodemography, emphasizing the proper handling of uncertainties. We then apply that framework to survey data from Cyprus, and quantify the uncertainties in the paleodemographic estimates to…
Automatic Adjustment Mechanisms (AAM) are legal instruments that help social security systems respond to demographic and economic changes. In Brazil, the Social Security Factor (SSF) was introduced in the late 1990s as an AAM to link…
The rapid spread of West Nile Virus (WNV) is a growing concern. With no vaccines or specific medications available, prevention through mosquito control is the only solution to curb the spread. Mosquito traps, used to detect viral presence…
Phonetics is the scientific field concerned with the study of how speech is produced, heard and perceived. It abounds with data, such as acoustic speech recordings, neuroimaging data, or articulatory data. In this paper, we provide an…
The literature shows the possible existence of a problem called collinearity in both Nelson-Siegel and Nelson-Siegel-Svensson models due to the relationship between the slope and curvature components. The presence of this problem and the…
We propose to capture relevant statistical associations in a dataset of categorical survey responses by a method, here termed MODP, that "learns" a probabilistic prediction function L. Specifically, L predicts each question's response based…
A major issue in the clinical management of epilepsy is the unpredictability of seizures. Yet, traditional approaches to seizure forecasting and risk assessment in epilepsy rely heavily on raw seizure frequencies, which are a stochastic…
This paper proposes a hierarchical spatial-temporal model for modelling the spectrograms of animal calls. The motivation stems from analyzing recordings of the so-called grunt calls emitted by various lemur species. Our goal is to identify…
Weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models play a central role in solar energy forecasting, where a cascade of physics-based models is used in a model chain approach to convert forecasts of solar irradiance to solar power…