应用统计
This paper presents a novel hybrid approach for constricting probabilistic forecasts that combines both the Quantile Regression Averaging (QRA) method and the factor-based averaging scheme. The performance of the approach is evaluated on…
Granular geographic data present new opportunities to understand how neighborhoods are formed, and how they influence politics. At the same time, the inherent subjectivity of neighborhoods creates methodological challenges in measuring and…
Reliable wind speed data is crucial for applications such as estimating local (future) wind power. Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) provide forecasts over multi-decadal periods. However, their outputs vary…
Motivated by a case study of vegetation patterns, we introduce a mixture model with concomitant variables to examine the association between the orientation of vegetation stripes and wind direction. The proposal relies on a novel…
School-escorted trips are a significant contributor to traffic congestion. Existing studies mainly compare road traffic during student pick-up/drop-off hours with off-peak times, often overlooking the fact that school-run traffic congestion…
In this paper, we study the problem of forecasting the next year's number of Atlantic hurricanes, which is relevant in many fields of applications such as land-use planning, hazard mitigation, reinsurance and long-term weather derivative…
Thermal comfort is essential for well-being in urban spaces, especially as cities face increasing heat from urbanization and climate change. Existing thermal comfort models usually overlook temporal dynamics alongside spatial dependencies.…
"If you ask ten experts, you will get ten different opinions." This common proverb illustrates the common association of expert forecasts with personal bias and lack of consistency. On the other hand, digitization promises consistency and…
The rise of globalisation has led to a sharp increase in international trade, with high volumes of containers, goods and items moving across the world. Unfortunately, these trade pathways also facilitate the movement of unwanted pests,…
Most population projection models require age-specific information on net migration totals as a key demographic component of population change. Existing methods for predicting future patterns of net migration by age have proven inadequate.…
In this research, we examine the capabilities of different mathematical models to accurately predict various levels of the English football pyramid. Existing work has largely focused on top-level play in European leagues; however, our work…
Studying the association between mixtures of environmental exposures and health outcomes can be challenging due to issues such as correlation among the exposures and non-linearities or interactions in the exposure-response function. For…
Understanding complex interactions within microbiomes is essential for exploring their roles in health and disease. However, constructing reliable microbiome networks often poses a challenge due to variations in the output of different…
Linked micromaps were originally developed to display geographically indexed statistics in an intuitive way by connecting them to a sequence of small maps. The approach integrates several visualization design principles, such as small…
In public health, it is critical for policymakers to assess the relationship between the disease prevalence and associated risk factors or clinical characteristics, facilitating effective resources allocation. However, for diseases like…
We propose a Bayesian meta-analysis to infer the current expansion rate of the Universe, called the Hubble constant ($H_0$), via time delay cosmography. Inputs of the meta-analysis are estimates of two properties for each pair of…
This article describes the R package moodlequizR, which allows the user to easily create fully randomized quizzes and exams for Moodle, or indeed any online assessment platform that uses XML files for importing questions. In such a quiz the…
This work is motivated by an original dataset of reported mumps cases across nine regions of England, and focuses on the modeling of temporal dynamics and time-varying dependency patterns between the observed time series. The goal is to…
With the rapid advancements in medical data acquisition and production, increasingly richer representations exist to characterize medical information. However, such large-scale data do not usually meet computing resource constraints or…
Stochastic ground motion models (GMMs) are gaining popularity and momentum among engineers to perform time-history analysis of structures and infrastructures. This paper aims to review and validate hierarchical stochastic GMMs, with a focus…