综合金融
Electricity production via solar energy is tackled via short-term forecasts and risk management. Our main tool is a new setting on time series. It allows the definition of "confidence bands" where the Gaussian assumption, which is not…
Toehold purchase, defined here as purchase of one share in a firm by an investor preparing a tender offer to acquire majority of shares in it, reduces by one the number of shares this investor needs for majority. In the paper we construct…
We analyse a multiplex of networks between OECD countries during the decade 2002-2010, which consists of five financial layers, given by foreign direct investment, equity securities, short-term, long-term and total debt securities, and five…
In general it is not clear which kind of information is supposed to be used for calculating the fair value of a contingent claim. Even if the information is specified, it is not guaranteed that the fair value is uniquely determined by the…
It has been shown that the long term evolution of the Gross Product of the World after World War II can be well portrayed by the exponential function with the crossover at the year 1973, cinsiding with the Oil Crisis onset. For the the…
In recent work, Boltzmann and Fokker-Planck equations were derived for the "Yard-Sale Model" of asset exchange. For the version of the model without redistribution, it was conjectured, based on numerical evidence, that the time-asymptotic…
Economic integration, globalization and financial crises represent examples of processes whose understanding requires the analysis of the underlying network structure. Of particular interest is establishing whether a real economic network…
Long-range climate forecasts use integrated assessment models to link the global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an alternative economic framework outlined in part 1 of this study (Garrett, 2014) that approaches…
The prospects of Kahneman and Tversky, Mega Million and Powerball lotteries, St. Petersburg paradox, premature profits and growing losses criticized by Livermore are reviewed under an angle of view comparing mathematical expectations with…
We run experimental asset markets to investigate the emergence of excess trading and the occurrence of synchronised trading activity leading to crashes in the artificial markets. The market environment favours early investment in the risky…
China's rapid economic growth resulted in serious air pollution, which caused substantial losses to economic development and residents' health. In particular, the road transport sector has been blamed to be one of the major emitters. During…
Mathematical properties of the historical GDP/cap distributions are discussed and explained. These distributions are frequently incorrectly interpreted and the Unified Growth Theory is an outstanding example of such common misconceptions.…
In this paper we study the financial repercussions of the destruction of two fully armed and operational moon-sized battle stations ("Death Stars") in a 4-year period and the dissolution of the galactic government in Star Wars. The emphasis…
Warning signs about the developing economic crisis in Greece were present in the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and in the growth of the GDP well before the economic collapse. The growth rate was strongly unstable. On…
The applications of techniques from statistical (and classical) mechanics to model interesting problems in economics and finance has produced valuable results. The principal movement which has steered this research direction is known under…
In this paper, we develop a theory of market crashes resulting from a deleveraging shock. We consider two representative investors in a market holding different opinions about the public available information. The deleveraging shock forces…
We give a simple explicit formula for turnover reduction when a large number of alphas are traded on the same execution platform and trades are crossed internally. We model turnover reduction via alpha correlations. Then, for a large number…
Trade is a fundamental pillar of economy and a form of social organization. Its empirical characterization at the worldwide scale is represented by the World Trade Web (WTW), the network built upon the trade relationships between the…
There are some statistical anomalies in the Chinese stock market, i.e., positive return skewness, anti-leverage effect (positive returns induce higher volatility than negative returns); and reverse volatility asymmetry (contemporaneous…
Growth rate of the world Growth Domestic Product (GDP) is analysed to determine possible pathways of the future economic growth. The analysis is based on using the latest data of the World Bank and it reveals that the growth rate between…