大气与海洋物理

Subpolar frontal zones are characterized by energetic storms, intense seasonal cycles, and close connectivity with surrounding continental shelf topography. At the same time, predicting the ocean state depends on appropriate partition of…

Variation of Arctic sea ice has significant impacts on polar ecosystems, transporting routes, coastal communities, and global climate. Tracing the change of sea ice at a finer scale is paramount for both operational applications and…

To promote the practical application of AI Global Weather Forecasting Models (AIGWFM), we have developed an adaptable application platform named 'YanTian'. This platform enhances existing open-source AIGWFM with a suite of…

To integrate wave and sediment transport modeling, a computationally extensive wave-resolving Voronoi mesh-based simulation has been developed to improve upon heretofore separate sediment and spectral wave modeling. Orbital wave…

In a recent paper Rousseau-Rizzi and Emanuel (2019) presented a derivation of an upper limit on maximum hurricane velocity at the surface. This derivation was based on a consideration of an infinitely narrow (differential) Carnot cycle with…

Air-sea exchange processes have been identified as essential for both short- and long-term atmospheric and ocean forecasts. The two phases of the fluid layer covering our planet interact across a vast range of scales that we need to explore…

Annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts are frequently modeled as a Poisson process with a state-dependent rate. We provide a lower bound on the forecasting error of this class of models. Remarkably we find that this bound is…

Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, cause significant property damage and result in fatalities, making it crucial to understand the factors driving extreme TCs. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences TC…

We introduce an interpretable-by-design method, optimized model-analog, that integrates deep learning with model-analog forecasting which generates forecasts from similar initial climate states in a repository of model simulations. This…

This paper explores the features of cyclonic disturbances (CDs) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) by utilizing data from 1990 to 2022. It investigates the occurrence rate of these disturbances and their effects on human and economic losses…

IceCloudNet is a novel method based on machine learning able to predict high-quality vertically resolved cloud ice water contents (IWC) and ice crystal number concentrations (N$_\textrm{ice}$). The predictions come at the spatio-temporal…

In this work, we study and compare the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and of spring soil moisture in Southern Europe on the duration and intensity of European summer heat waves. We study common heat waves with…

We implement a data assimilation framework for integrating ice surface and terminus position observations into a numerical ice-flow model. The model uses the well-known shallow shelf approximation (SSA) coupled to a level set method to…

This study examines the predictability of artificial intelligence (AI) models for weather prediction. Using a simple deep-learning architecture based on convolutional long short-term memory and the ERA5 data for training, we show that…

Cloud radiative feedback impacts early tropical cyclone (TC) intensification, but limitations in existing diagnostic frameworks make them unsuitable for studying asymmetric or transient radiative heating. We propose a linear Variational…

Regional high-resolution climate projections are crucial for many applications, such as agriculture, hydrology, and natural hazard risk assessment. Dynamical downscaling, the state-of-the-art method to produce localized future climate…

Current climate models often struggle with accuracy because they lack sufficient resolution, a limitation caused by computational constraints. This reduces the precision of weather forecasts and long-term climate predictions. To address…

The surge of pelagic \emph{Sargassum} in the Intra-America Seas, particularly the Caribbean Sea, since the early 2010s has raised significant ecological concerns. This study emphasizes the need for a mechanistic understanding of…

This is the second part of a series of two articles focused on the development and evaluation of the ARP-GEM1 global atmosphere model. The first paper introduced the model's new physics and speedup improvements. In this second part, we…

This is the first part of a series of two articles describing the ARP-GEM global atmosphere model version 1 and its evaluation in simulations from 55 km to 6 km resolutions. This article provides a complete description of ARP-GEM1, focusing…