综合经济学
This paper studies the impact of the 2022 Dobbs decision and subsequent state level abortion bans on the labor supply of young women (ages 18-24). Using monthly CPS micro data from January 2021 to December 2023, I exploit cross state…
This paper presents quasi-experimental research examining the effect of both local and state anti-discrimination laws on sexual orientation on the labor supply and wages of lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) workers. To do so, we use the…
We study macroeconomic fluctuations in the United Kingdom over seven centuries (1271--2022) using a time-varying VAR with stochastic volatility. We identify business cycle shocks as innovations explaining the largest share of future output…
In this report, we document patterns of Claude usage over time, in 150+ countries, across US states, and among businesses deploying Claude through the API. Based on a privacy-preserving analysis of 1 million conversations on Claude.ai and 1…
Conventional feasibility studies of deep decarbonisation are often limited in their temporal scope, and are thus unable to draw conclusions about grid reliability over multi-decadal time periods. To address this problem, we introduce…
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Co (HSBC) just survived a civil war intermitted by World War II. By the 1950s, it obviously needed to close all its branches in Mao's People's Republic of China, yet could somehow hold its Shanghai branch,…
AI agents are increasingly deployed to automate complex enterprise workflows, yet evidence of their effectiveness in identity governance is limited. We report results from the first randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluating an AI agent…
Security operations centers (SOCs) face a persistent challenge: efficiently triaging a high volume of user-reported phishing emails while maintaining robust protection against threats. This paper presents the first randomized controlled…
We use multi-regional input-output analysis to calculate the paid labour, energy, emissions, and material use required to provide basic needs for all people. We calculate two different low-consumption scenarios, using the UK as a case…
This study examines how congestion pricing shapes housing market outcomes and spatial equity in New York City. Using high-frequency sales and rental data and a combination of propensity score matching difference-in-differences, geographic…
The addition of phosphorus, in the form of mineral fertilizer, becomes necessary in most agricultural soils in order to achieve consistent high yield levels of intensive farming and maintain soil fertility. Recent consolidation of phosphate…
Large language models (LLMs) increasingly mediate economic and organisational processes, from automated customer support and recruitment to investment advice and policy analysis. These systems are often assumed to embody rational decision…
We propose a framework that recasts scientific novelty not as a single attribute of a paper, but as a reflection of its position within the evolving intellectual landscape. We decompose this position into two orthogonal dimensions:…
In electricity systems supplied by renewable energy sources (RES), storage operators shift energy across time, helping maintain system adequacy. However, characterizing their strategic role and identifying the conditions under which…
This paper evaluates the short and medium-term effectiveness of payroll tax reductions aimed at promoting the permanent conversion of temporary contracts through social contribution exemptions. Using rich administrative data from Tuscany,…
We present NoLBERT, a lightweight, timestamped foundational language model for empirical research -- particularly for forecasting in economics, finance, and the social sciences. By pretraining exclusively on text from 1976 to 1995, NoLBERT…
We study how tariffs affect industrial structure and welfare in an economy where sectors are complements and preferences are nonhomothetic -- two drivers of structural change. Import tariffs on a sector influence sectoral composition by…
I analyze proprietary data from BizReach (2014-2024) to estimate the matching function for high-skill workers on a private on-the-job search platform using Lange and Papageorgiou (2020) nonparametric approach. Comparing it to Hello Work, I…
We build a game-theoretic model to formalize Kindleberger's (1996) idea of the public good of leadership. Two superpowers use ideology to compete for influence by forming clubs whose members benefit more when their orientations are closer…
Political "circuses" may undermine democratic accountability if leaders facing scandal can reliably pull media coverage toward fresh topics and away from substantive investigations or evaluations. We investigate whether politicians…