Related papers: Predicting hurricane regional landfall rates: comp…
Building on recent research for prediction of hurricane trajectories using recurrent neural networks (RNNs), we have developed improved methods and generalized the approach to predict Bayesian intervals in addition to simple point…
There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict…
We are developing schemes that predict future hurricane numbers by first predicting future sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and then apply the observed statistical relationship between SST and hurricane numbers. As part of this overall…
In previous work we have analysed the Atlantic basin hurricane number time-series to identify decadal time-scale change points. We now repeat the analysis but for US landfalling hurricanes. The results are very different.
The time series of the number of hurricanes per year in the Atlantic basin shows a clear change of level between 1994 and 1995. The time series of the number of hurricanes that make landfall in the US, however, does not show the same…
The prediction of the intensity, location and time of the landfall of a tropical cyclone well advance in time and with high accuracy can reduce human and material loss immensely. In this article, we develop a Long Short-Term memory based…
Hurricanes rank among the most destructive natural hazards. They are complex phenomena that can cause both direct damage along their path and indirect impacts due to heavy rainfall and strong winds, with effects varying according to…
The physical and economic damages of hurricanes can acutely affect employment and the well-being of employees. However, a comprehensive understanding of these impacts remains elusive as many studies focused on narrow subsets of regions or…
Rainfall in coastal areas of the tropics is often shaped by the presence of circulations directly associated with the topography, such as land-sea and/or mountain-valley breezes. In many regions the coastally-affected rainfall consitutes…
Community risk perceptions can influence their abilities to cope with coastal hazards such as hurricanes and coastal flooding.Our study presents an initial effort to examine the relationship between community resilience and risk perception…
In this paper we introduce a novel framework for trajectory prediction of geospatial sequences using GraphTransformers. When viewed across several sequences, we observed that a graph structure automatically emerges between different…
Coastally associated rainfall is a common feature especially in tropical and subtropical regions. However, it has been difficult to quantify the contribution of coastal rainfall features to the overall local rainfall. We develop a novel…
During hurricane seasons, emergency managers and other decision makers need accurate and `on-time' information on potential storm surge impacts. Fully dynamical computer models, such as the ADCIRC tide, storm surge, and wind-wave model take…
Hurricanes cause significant economic and human costs, requiring individuals to make critical evacuation decisions under uncertainty and stress. To enhance the understanding of this decision-making process, we propose using Bayesian…
Principled decision making in emergency response management necessitates the use of statistical models that predict the spatial-temporal likelihood of incident occurrence. These statistical models are then used for proactive stationing…
High quality Quantitative Precipitation Estimation at high spatiotemporal resolution is crucial to many hydrologic/hydro-meteorological designs. Optimal Quantitative Precipitation Estimation of rainfall improves the accuracy of river and…
Hail risk assessment is necessary to estimate and reduce damage to crops, orchards, and infrastructure. Also, it helps to estimate and reduce consequent losses for businesses and, particularly, insurance companies. But hail forecasting is…
In the aftermath of a hurricane, humanitarian logistics plays a critical role in delivering relief items to the affected areas in a timely fashion. This paper proposes a novel stochastic lookahead framework that implements a two-stage…
Floods are among the most common and devastating natural hazards, imposing immense costs on our society and economy due to their disastrous consequences. Recent progress in weather prediction and spaceborne flood mapping demonstrated the…
Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often the source of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to mass infrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticity maxima which…