Related papers: Predicting hurricane regional landfall rates: comp…

Storm surge, the onshore rush of sea water caused by the high winds and low pressure associated with a hurricane, can compound the effects of inland flooding caused by rainfall, leading to loss of property and loss of life for residents of…

Fast and accurate prediction of hurricane evolution from genesis onwards is needed to reduce loss of life and enhance community resilience. In this work, a novel model development methodology for predicting storm trajectory is proposed…

This paper estimates local tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over…

We present results from the sixth stage of a project to build a statistical hurricane model. Previous papers have described our modelling of the tracks, genesis, and lysis of hurricanes. In our track model we have so far employed a normal…

Tropical cyclones present a serious threat to many coastal communities around the world. Many numerical weather prediction models provide deterministic forecasts with limited measures of their forecast uncertainty. Standard postprocessing…

Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed for modeling tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage potential in the Atlantic basin. We model the joint probability distribution of tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage…

Particularly important to hurricane risk assessment for coastal regions is finding accurate approximations of return probabilities of maximum windspeeds. Since extremes in maximum windspeed have a direct relationship to minimums in the…

Landfall of a tropical cyclone is the event when it moves over the land after crossing the coast of the ocean. It is important to know the characteristics of the landfall in terms of location and time, well advance in time to take…

Atlantic Canada faces significant hurricane threats from damaging winds and coastal flooding that are projected to intensify under climate change. This study adopts a two-stage framework. First, the evolution of wind and coastal-flood…

Hurricane track forecasting remains a significant challenge due to the complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, and ocean. Although AI-based numerical weather prediction models, such as Google Graphcast operation, have…

The objective of this paper is to employ machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques to obtain from input data (storm features) available in or derived from the HURDAT2 database models capable of simulating important hurricane…

This paper describes a novel machine learning (ML) framework for tropical cyclone intensity and track forecasting, combining multiple ML techniques and utilizing diverse data sources. Our multimodal framework, called Hurricast, efficiently…

The generation of synthetic tropical cyclone(TC) tracks for risk assessment is a critical application of preparedness for the impacts of climate change and disaster relief, particularly in North America. Insurance companies use these…

In light of intense hurricane activity along the U.S. Atlantic coast, attention has turned to understanding both the economic impact and behaviour of these storms. The compound Poisson-lognormal process has been proposed as a model for…

This second paper of the series (see the first one in [1]) models the dynamics and structure of upper hurricane layer in adiabatic approximation. Formulation of simplified aerodynamic model allows analytically express the radial…

Aerodynamic models are developed to describe coherent structures and transport processes in hurricanes moving over open seas. The models consist of the lower boundary layer and upper adiabatic layer. Except friction at the air/sea…

Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The…

In earlier work we considered methods for predicting future levels of hurricane activity based on the assumption that historical mean activity was at one constant level from 1900 to 1994, and has been at another constant level since then.…

We describe results from the third stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. In the second stage we modelled the unconditional variance of fluctuations…

The forecast of tropical cyclone trajectories is crucial for the protection of people and property. Although forecast dynamical models can provide high-precision short-term forecasts, they are computationally demanding, and current…