Related papers: Predicting hurricane regional landfall rates: comp…
Improved understanding of characteristics related to weather forecast accuracy in the United States may help meteorologists develop more accurate predictions and may help Americans better interpret their daily weather forecasts. This…
A theoretical formulation for the early stage (Tropical Storm stage) of hurricane development is proposed. These solutions are not only consistent with observations but also offer some new insights into hurricane properties. This is the…
We perform an objective change-point analysis on 106 years of historical hurricane number data. The algorithm we use looks at all possible combinations of change-points and compares them in terms of the variances of the differences between…
Hurricanes are costly natural disasters periodically faced by households in coastal and to some extent, inland areas. A detailed understanding of evacuation behavior is fundamental to the development of efficient emergency plans. Once a…
Based on realistic estimates of geophysical conditions it is demonstrated that by practical means; (1) the intensity of a hurricane can be diminished before making landfall; (2) and other circumstances, a potential hurricane might be…
This paper presents a modeling approach for probabilistic estimation of hurricane wind-induced damage to infrastructural assets. In our approach, we employ a Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP) model for estimating spatially-varying…
Seasonal point processes refer to stochastic models for random events which are only observed in a given season. We develop nonparametric Bayesian methodology to study the dynamic evolution of a seasonal marked point process intensity. We…
The radius of maximum wind ($R_{max}$) in a hurricane governs the footprint of hazards, particularly damaging wind and rainfall. However, $R_{max}$ is noisy to observe directly and is poorly resolved in reanalyses and climate models. In…
During hurricanes, coupled wave-circulation models are critical tools for public safety. The standard approach is to use a high fidelity circulation model coupled with a wave model which uses the most advanced source terms. As a result, the…
Recent research has suggested that the overall dependence of convection near coasts on large-scale atmospheric conditions is weaker than over the open ocean or inland areas. This is due to the fact that in coastal regions convection is…
We propose a new statistical protocol for the estimation of precipitation using lightning data. We first identify rainy events using a scan statistics, then we estimate Rainfall Lighting Ratio (RLR) to convert lightning number into rain…
Models for extreme values accommodating non-stationarity have been amply studied and evaluated from a parametric perspective. Whilst these models are flexible, in the sense that many parametrizations can be explored, they assume an…
This study develops a statistical conditional approach to evaluate climate model performance in wind speed and direction and to project their future changes under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario over inland and…
Low-lying coastal cities across the world are vulnerable to the combined impact of rainfall and storm tide. However, existing approaches lack the ability to model the combined effect of these flood mechanisms. Thus, to increase flood…
Partitioning ocean flows into regions dynamically distinct from their surroundings based on material transport can assist search-and-rescue planning by reducing the search domain. The spectral clustering method partitions the domain by…
Landslides, movement of soil and rock under the influence of gravity, are common phenomena that cause significant human and economic losses every year. Experts use heterogeneous features such as slope, elevation, land cover, lithology, rock…
Hurricane evacuation, ordered to save lives of people of coastal regions, generates high traffic demand with increased crash risk. To mitigate such risk, transportation agencies need to anticipate highway locations with high crash risks to…
Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic, North and South Indian, and East and West Pacific Oceans. We find that there is…
To mitigate the risk posed by extreme rainfall events, we require statistical models that reliably capture extremes in continuous space with dependence. However, assuming a stationary dependence structure in such models is often erroneous,…
The impacts of a tropical cyclone after landfall depend not only on storm intensity but also on the size and structure of the wind field. Hence, a simple predictive model for the wind field after landfall has significant potential value.…