Related papers: Optimal tail estimates for directed last passage s…
This work studies applications and generalizations of a simple estimation technique that provides exponential concentration under heavy-tailed distributions, assuming only bounded low-order moments. We show that the technique can be used…
Atypically large fluctuations in macroscopic non-equilibrium systems continue to attract interest. Their probability can often be determined by the optimal fluctuation method (OFM). The OFM brings about a conditional variational problem,…
In a seminal paper Biggins and Kyprianou \cite{BKy04} proved the existence of a non degenerate limit for the {\it Derivative martingale} of the branching random walk. As shown in \cite{Aid11} and \cite{Mad11}, this is an object of central…
For exponential last passage percolation on the plane we analyse the probability that the point-to-line geodesic exhibits an atypically large transversal fluctuation at the endpoint as well as the probability that the point-to-point…
Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…
We study a new estimator for the tail index of a distribution in the Frechet domain of attraction that arises naturally by computing subsample maxima. This estimator is equivalent to taking a U-statistic over a Hill estimator with two order…
We prove a GUE central limit theorem for random variables with finite fourth moment. We apply this theorem to prove that the directed first and last passage percolation problems in thin rectangles exhibit universal fluctuations given by the…
A complete characterization of the possible joint distributions of the maximum and terminal value of uniformly integrable martingale has been known for some time, and the aim of this paper is to establish a similar characterization for…
On the $Z^2$ lattice, vertices are assigned random weights $W(i,j)$. The point-to-point last passage percolation (LPP) time $S_{M,N+1-M}$ between $(1,1)$ and $(M,N+1-M)$ is the maximum total weight among all upward/right-oriented paths…
This article studies several properties of the half-space last passage percolation, in particular the two-time covariance. We show that, when the two end-points are at small macroscopic distance, then the first order correction to the…
We prove $\sqrt{\log n}$ lower bounds on the order of growth fluctuations in three planar growth models (first-passage percolation, last-passage percolation, and directed polymers) under no assumptions on the distribution of vertex or edge…
The upper tail of a claim size distribution of a property line of business is frequently modelled by Pareto distribution. However, the upper tail does not need to be Pareto distributed, extraordinary shapes are possible. Here, the…
This is a continuation of our earlier work [Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 129(1), pp.102--128, 2019] on the random walk in random scenery and in random layered conductance. We complete the picture of upper deviation of the…
For percolating systems, we propose a universal exponent relation connecting the leading corrections to scaling of the cluster size distribution with the dynamic corrections to the asymptotic transport behaviour at criticality. Our…
We consider the task of heavy-tailed statistical estimation given streaming $p$-dimensional samples. This could also be viewed as stochastic optimization under heavy-tailed distributions, with an additional $O(p)$ space complexity…
The energy and geometry of maximizing paths in integrable last passage percolation models are governed by the characteristic KPZ scaling exponents of one-third and two-thirds. When represented in scaled coordinates that respect these…
Considering the optimal alignment of two i.i.d. random sequences of length $n$, we show that when the scoring function is chosen randomly, almost surely the empirical distribution of aligned letter pairs in all optimal alignments converges…
We develop an efficient simulation algorithm for computing the tail probabilities of the infinite series $S = \sum_{n \geq 1} a_n X_n$ when random variables $X_n$ are heavy-tailed. As $S$ is the sum of infinitely many random variables, any…
In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating an extreme quantile of a Weibull tail-distribution. The new extreme quantile estimator has a reduced bias compared to the more classical ones proposed in the literature. It is based on an…
Last passage percolation (LPP) in an $n\times n$ lower triangular domain has nice connections with various generalizations of Schur measures. LPP along an anti-diagonal, from $(1,n)$ to $(n,1)$, gives a distribution of a highest column of a…