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Given a finite collection of stochastic alternatives, we study the problem of sequentially allocating a fixed sampling budget to identify the optimal alternative with a high probability, where the optimal alternative is defined as the one…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-11 Dohyun Ahn , Taeho Kim

In this note we provide a short proof of the distributional equality between last passage percolation with geometric weights along a general down-right path and Schur processes. We do this in both the full-space and half-space settings, and…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-07 Evgeni Dimitrov , Zongrui Yang

Last three years have seen new developments in the theory of last passage percolation, which has variety applications to random permutations, random growth and random vicious walks. It turns out that a few class of models have determinant…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Jinho Baik

For the last passage percolation (LPP) on $\mathbb{Z}^2$ with exponential passage times, let $T_{n}$ denote the passage time from $(1,1)$ to $(n,n)$. We investigate the law of iterated logarithm of the sequence $\{T_{n}\}_{n\geq 1}$; we…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-09-04 Riddhipratim Basu , Shirshendu Ganguly , Milind Hegde , Manjunath Krishnapur

In this paper, we study some properties of optimal paths in the first passage percolation on $\Z^d$ and show the followings: (1) the number of optimal paths has an exponential growth if the distribution has an atom; (2) the means of…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-31 Shuta Nakajima

We prove that a directed last passage percolation model with discontinuous macroscopic (non-random) inhomogeneities has a continuum limit that corresponds to solving a Hamilton-Jacobi equation in the viscosity sense. This Hamilton-Jacobi…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2015-06-18 Jeff Calder

Empirical distributions have their in-sample maxima as natural censoring. We look at the "hidden tail", that is, the part of the distribution in excess of the maximum for a sample size of $n$. Using extreme value theory, we examine the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-14 Nassim Nicholas Taleb

We prove a strong law of large numbers for directed last passage times in an independent but inhomogeneous exponential environment. Rates for the exponential random variables are obtained from a discretisation of a speed function that may…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-08-03 Federico Ciech , Nicos Georgiou

Solving optimization problems leads to elegant and practical solutions in a wide variety of real-world applications. In many of those real-world applications, some of the information required to specify the relevant optimization problem is…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-06-11 Kritkorn Karntikoon , Yiheng Shen , Sreenivas Gollapudi , Kostas Kollias , Aaron Schild , Ali Sinop

We study the random geometry of first passage percolation on the complete graph equipped with independent and identically distributed edge weights, continuing the program initiated by Bhamidi and van der Hofstad [9]. We describe our results…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-23 M. Eckhoff , J. Goodman , R. van der Hofstad , F. R. Nardi

We study the optimal trade-off between expectation and tail risk for regret distribution in the stochastic multi-armed bandit model. We fully characterize the interplay among three desired properties for policy design: worst-case…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-27 David Simchi-Levi , Zeyu Zheng , Feng Zhu

For the basic case of $L_2$ optimal transport between two probability measures on a Euclidean space, the regularity of the coupling measure and the transport map in the tail regions of these measures is studied. For this purpose, Robert…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-06 Cees de Valk , Johan Segers

In this paper we consider the first passage percolation with identical and independent exponentially distributions, called the Eden growth model, and we study the upper tail large deviations for the first passage time ${\rm T}$. Our main…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-01 Shuta Nakajima

Consider first passage percolation with identical and independent weight distributions and first passage time ${\rm T}$. In this paper, we study the upper tail large deviations $\mathbb{P}({\rm T}(0,nx)>n(\mu+\xi))$, for $\xi>0$ and $x\neq…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-02 Clément Cosco , Shuta Nakajima

High-dimensional covariance estimation is notoriously sensitive to outliers. While statistically optimal estimators exist for general heavy-tailed distributions, they often rely on computationally expensive techniques like semidefinite…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-06 Even He

This article proposes a new method of truncated estimation to estimate the tail index $\alpha$ of the extremely heavy-tailed distribution with infinite mean or variance. We not only present two truncated estimators $\hat{\alpha}$ and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-13 F. Q. Tang , D. Han

We consider the problem of finding the optimal upper bound for the tail probability of a sum of $k$ nonnegative, independent and identically distributed random variables with given mean $x$. For $k=1$ the answer is given by Markov's…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-12 Tomasz Łuczak , Katarzyna Mieczkowska , Matas Šileikis

We study the lower tail large deviation problem for subgraph counts in a random graph. Let $X_H$ denote the number of copies of $H$ in an Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph $\mathcal{G}(n,p)$. We are interested in estimating the lower tail…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2019-04-12 Yufei Zhao

We consider first passage percolation on sparse random graphs with prescribed degree distributions and general independent and identically distributed edge weights assumed to have a density. Assuming that the degree distribution satisfies a…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-10-26 Shankar Bhamidi , Remco van der Hofstad , Gerard Hooghiemstra

We consider the random connection model in which an edge between two Poisson points at distance $r$ is present with probability $g(r)$. We conduct an extreme value analysis on this model, namely by investigating the longest edge with at…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-11 Arnaud Rousselle , Ercan Sönmez