Related papers: Optimal tail estimates for directed last passage s…

We consider the tail probabilities of stock returns for a general class of stochastic volatility models. In these models, the stochastic differential equation for volatility is autonomous, time-homogeneous and dependent on only a finite…

We study site percolation on uniform quadrangulations of the upper half plane. The main contribution is a method for applying Angel's peeling process, in particular for analyzing an evolving boundary condition during the peeling. Our method…

We provide Monte Carlo estimates of the scaling of the length $L_{n}$ of the longest increasing subsequences of $n$-steps random walks for several different distributions of step lengths, short and heavy-tailed. Our simulations indicate…

We present an "ultimate" proof of Cardy's formula for the critical percolation on the hexagonal lattice \cite{Smirnov01criticalpercolation}, showing the existence of the universal and conformally invariant scaling limit of crossing…

We consider the first passage percolation model on $\mathbf{Z}^2$. In this model, we assign independently to each edge $e$ a passage time $t(e)$ with a common distribution $F$. Let $T(u,v)$ be the passage time from $u$ to $v$. In this…

We establish sharp large deviation asymptotics for the maximum order statistic of independent and identically distributed heavy-tailed random variables, valid for all Borel subsets of the right tail. This result yields exact decay rates for…

A weighted Gaussian approximation to tail product-limit process for Pareto-like distributions of randomly right-truncated data is provided and a new consistent and asymptotically normal estimator of the extreme value index is derived. A…

We consider the half-space geometric Last Passage Percolation model starting with stationary measures. We obtain exact formulas for LPP value along the diagonal $(N,N)$ across the entire phase diagram. We also obtain the limits of these…

This paper introduces a flexible framework for the estimation of the conditional tail index of heavy tailed distributions. In this framework, the tail index is computed from an auxiliary linear regression model that facilitates estimation…

The discrete distribution of the length of longest increasing subsequences in random permutations of $n$ integers is deeply related to random matrix theory. In a seminal work, Baik, Deift and Johansson provided an asymptotics in terms of…

We obtain an uniform tail estimates for natural normed sums of independent random variables (r.v.) with regular varying tails of distributions. We give also many examples on order to show the exactness of offered estimates and discuss some…

This paper introduces a robust and computationally efficient estimation framework for high-dimensional volatility models in the BEKK-ARCH class. The proposed approach employs data truncation to ensure robustness against heavy-tailed…

In empirical studies of random walks, continuous trajectories of animals or individuals are usually sampled over a finite number of points in space and time. It is however unclear how this partial observation affects the measured…

In this paper we consider the semi-parametric estimation of extreme quantiles of a right heavy-tail model. We propose a new Log Probability Weighted Moment estimator for extreme quantiles, which is obtained from the estimators of the shape…

In this note, we prove convergence of the half-space exponential last passage percolation (LPP) model, away from the boundary, to the directed landscape. Our approach couples the half-space and full-space LPP models and constructs two…

Motivated by the empirical observation of power-law distributions in the credits (e.g., ``likes'') of viral posts in social media, we introduce a high-dimensional tail index regression model and propose methods for estimation and inference…

We study downward deviations of the maximum local time of the discrete-time simple random walk on $\mathbb{Z}^d$, $d\ge 3$. In our previous paper \cite{li2026ldmaxlocal}, the corresponding upper bound was established, while the matching…

We consider the first passage percolation model on the square lattice. In this model, $\{t(e): e{an edge of}{\bf Z}^2 \}$ is an independent identically distributed family with a common distribution $F$. We denote by $T({\bf 0}, v)$ the…

In Online Convex Optimization (OCO), when the stochastic gradient has a finite variance, many algorithms provably work and guarantee a sublinear regret. However, limited results are known if the gradient estimate has a heavy tail, i.e., the…

Let $X$ be the number of $k$-term arithmetic progressions contained in the $p$-biased random subset of the first $N$ positive integers. We give asymptotically sharp estimates on the logarithmic upper-tail probability $\log \Pr(X \ge E[X] +…