Related papers: Investigating Rare Events by Transition Interface …
Rare events play a key role in many applications and numerous algorithms have been proposed for estimating the probability of a rare event. However, relatively little is known on how to quantify the sensitivity of the probability with…
The paper explores the challenges of regression analysis in evolving data streams, an area that remains relatively underexplored compared to classification. We propose a standardized evaluation process for regression and prediction interval…
The paper illustrates an application of the Resampling approach [2] for the estimation of the aircraft circulation plan reliability. Resampling is an intensive computer statistical method, which can be used effectively in the case of small…
The probability of rare and extreme events is an important quantity for design purposes. However, computing the probability of rare events can be expensive because only a few events, if any, can be observed. To this end, it is necessary to…
In an experimental study of single enzyme reactions, it has been proposed that the rate constants of the enzymatic reactions fluctuate randomly, according to a given distribution. To quantify the uncertainty arising from random rate…
This is a method for discrete event simulation specified by survival analysis. It presents a sequence of steps. First, hazard rates from survival analysis specify the rates of a set of counting processes. Second, those counting processes…
Although many computational methods for rare event sampling exist, this type of calculation is not usually practical for general nonequilibrium conditions, with macroscopically irreversible dynamics and away from both stationary and…
Analysing stationary point databases to extract phenomenological rate constants can become time-consuming for systems with large potential energy barriers. In the present contribution we analyse several different approaches to this problem.…
Automated Vehicle (AV) validation based on simulated testing requires unbiased evaluation and high efficiency. One effective solution is to increase the exposure to risky rare events while reweighting the probability measure. However,…
Estimating the probability of failures or accidents with aerospace systems is often necessary when new concepts or designs are introduced, as it is being done for Autonomous Aircraft. If the design is safe, as it is supposed to be, accident…
A comprehensive description of molecular electron transfer reactions is essential for our understanding of fundamental phenomena in bio-energetics and molecular electronics. Experimental studies of molecular systems in condensed-phase…
Two phase flows that include phase transition, especially phase creation, with a sharp interface remain a challenging task for numerics. We consider the isothermal Euler equations with phase transition between a liquid and a vapor phase.…
Rare event simulation and estimation for systems in equilibrium are among the most challenging topics in molecular dynamics. As was shown by Jarzynski and others, nonequilibrium forcing can theoretically be used to obtain equilibrium rare…
Transition path theory computes statistics from ensembles of reactive trajectories. A common strategy for sampling reactive trajectories is to control the branching and pruning of trajectories so as to enhance the sampling of low…
Processes involving multi-input multi-step reaction cascades are used in developing novel biosensing, biocomputing, and decision making systems. In various applications different changes in responses of the constituent processing steps…
Reliability sensitivity analysis is concerned with measuring the influence of a system's uncertain input parameters on its probability of failure. Statistically dependent inputs present a challenge in both computing and interpreting these…
We introduce an extension to the Weighted Ensemble (WE) path sampling method to restrict sampling to a one dimensional path through a high dimensional phase space. Our method, which is based on the finite-temperature string method, permits…
Equilibrium rate theories play a crucial role in understanding rare, reactive events. However, they are inapplicable to a range of irreversible processes in systems driven far from thermodynamic equilibrium like active and biological…
Simulating transition dynamics between metastable states is a fundamental challenge in dynamical systems and stochastic processes with wide real-world applications in understanding protein folding, chemical reactions and neural activities.…
This paper introduces a new Importance Sampling scheme, called Adaptive Twisted Importance Sampling, which is adequate for the improved estimation of rare event probabilities in he range of moderate deviations pertaining to the empirical…