Related papers: A Statistical Solar Flare Forecast Method
The problem of prediction of a given time series is examined on the basis of recent nonlinear dynamics theories. Particular attention is devoted to forecast the amplitude and phase of one of the most common solar indicator activity, the…
Solar flares are the largest energy-release events in the Solar System, allowing us to study fundamental physical phenomena under extreme conditions. Those include magnetic reconnection, particle acceleration, radiation transport, and…
Ahead-of-time forecasting of incident solar-irradiance on a panel is indicative of expected energy yield and is essential for efficient grid distribution and planning. Traditionally, these forecasts are based on meteorological physics…
The occurrence of X-class solar flares and their potential impact on the space weather often receive great attention than other flares. But predicting when and where an X-class flare will occur is still a challenge. With the…
The forecast method introduced by Kors\'os et al.(2014) is generalised from the horizontal magnetic gradient (GM), defined between two opposite polarity spots, to all spots within an appropriately defined region close to the magnetic…
Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events and their major subclass, Solar Proton Events (SPEs), can have unfavorable consequences on numerous aspects of life and technology, making them one of the most harmful effects of solar activity.…
Solar flares are observed and classified according to their intensity measured with the GOES X-ray Sensors. We show that the duration of a flare, as measured by the full width at half maximum (FWHM) in GOES is not related to the size of the…
The temporal recurrence of micro-flare events is studied in a time interval before and after of major solar flares. Our sample is based on the x-ray flare observations by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and…
A demonstrated failure mode for operational solar flare forecasting is the inability to forecast flares that occur near, or just beyond, the solar limb. To address this shortcoming, we develop a "4pi" full-heliosphere event forecasting…
In this paper, we consider incorporating data associated with the sun's north and south polar field strengths to improve solar flare prediction performance using machine learning models. When used to supplement local data from active…
We developed a flare prediction model using machine learning, which is optimized to predict the maximum class of flares occurring in the following 24 h. Machine learning is used to devise algorithms that can learn from and make decisions on…
Solar flares are defined as outbursts on the surface of the Sun. They occur when energy accumulated in magnetic fields enclosing solar active regions (ARs) is abruptly expelled. Solar flares and associated coronal mass ejections are sources…
Solar flare prediction is a central problem in space weather forecasting and recent developments in machine learning and deep learning accelerated the adoption of complex models for data-driven solar flare forecasting. In this work, we…
The paper presents a Gaussian/kernel process regression method for real-time state estimation and forecasting of phase angle and angular speed in systems with a high penetration of solar generation units, operating under a sparse…
Prediction of the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events garner increasing interest as space missions extend beyond Earth's protective magnetosphere. These events, which are, in most cases, products of magnetic reconnection-driven processes…
Solar flares occur due to the sudden release of energy stored in active-region magnetic fields. To date, the pre-cursors to flaring are still not fully understood, although there is evidence that flaring is related to changes in the…
Although space weather events may not directly affect human life, they have the potential to inflict significant harm upon our communities. Harmful space weather events can trigger atmospheric changes that result in physical and economic…
In the United States, scientific research in space weather is funded by several Government Agencies including the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA). For commercial purposes, space weather…
Ground level enhancements (GLEs) are relativistic sol particles measured at ground level by a worldwide network of cosmic ray detectors. These sporadic events are associated with solar flares and are assumed to be of a quasi-random nature.…
Solar radio flux along with geomagnetic indices are important indicators of solar activity and its effects. Extreme solar events such as flares and geomagnetic storms can negatively affect the space environment including satellites in…