Related papers: A Statistical Solar Flare Forecast Method

We examine SDO/EVE data to better understand solar flare irradiance, and how that irradiance may vary for large events. We measure scaling laws relating GOES flare classes to irradiance in 21 lines measured with SDO/EVE, formed across a…

The possibilities of organizing an observation service for solar activity in order to provide space weather forecasting are considered. The most promising at this stage is the creation of a ground-based observation network. Such a network…

We consider imaging of solar flares from NASA RHESSI data as a parametric imaging problem, where flares are represented as a finite collection of geometric shapes. We set up a Bayesian model in which the number of objects forming the image…

Accurate 24-hour solar irradiance forecasting is essential for the safe and economic operation of solar photovoltaic systems. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models represent the state-of-the-art in forecasting performance…

Lightning is a destructive and highly visible product of severe storms, yet there is still much to be learned about the conditions under which lightning is most likely to occur. The GOES-16 and GOES-17 satellites, launched in 2016 and 2018…

Solar flares are intense eruptive events caused by the rapid release of magnetic energy, often impacting Earth's space environment through electromagnetic radiation and high-energy particles. Accurate flare prediction is critical for space…

We describe and use two different statistical approaches to try and detect low-frequency solar oscillations in Sun-as-a-star data: a frequentist approach and a Bayesian approach. We have used frequentist statistics to search contemporaneous…

Solar energetic particles are a result of intense solar events such as solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). These latter events all together can cause major disruptions to spacecraft that are in Earth's orbit and outside of the…

High energy solar flares and coronal mass ejections have the potential to destroy Earth's ground and satellite infrastructures, causing trillions of dollars in damage and mass human suffering. Destruction of these critical systems would…

Solar flares are among the most severe space weather phenomena, and they have the capacity to generate radiation storms and radio disruptions on Earth. The accurate prediction of solar flare events remains a significant challenge, requiring…

Extended human presence beyond low-Earth orbit (BLEO) during missions to the Moon and Mars will pose significant challenges in the near future. A primary health risk associated with these missions is radiation exposure, primarily from…

We introduce a new multivariate data set that utilizes multiple spacecraft collecting in-situ and remote sensing heliospheric measurements shown to be linked to physical processes responsible for generating solar energetic particles (SEPs).…

In this article, we insist on the importance and the challenges of the prediction of solar eruptive phenomena including flares, coronal mass ejections (CME), and filament eruptions fully based on the ground-based telescopes. It is true that…

Accurate, reliable solar flare prediction is crucial for mitigating potential disruptions to critical infrastructure, while predicting solar flares remains a significant challenge. Existing methods based on heuristic physical features often…

The nature of quasi-periodic pulsations in solar flares is poorly constrained, and critically the general prevalence of such signals in solar flares is unknown. Therefore, we perform a large-scale search for evidence of signals consistent…

A method is developed for fitting theoretically predicted astronomical spectra to an observed spectrum. Using a hierarchical Bayesian principle, the method takes both systematic and statistical measurement errors into account, which has not…

The Space-Weather ANalytics for Solar Flares (SWAN-SF) is a multivariate time series benchmark dataset recently created to serve the heliophysics community as a testbed for solar flare forecasting models. SWAN-SF contains 54 unique…

The prediction of solar flares, eruptions, and high energy particle storms is of great societal importance. The data mining approach to forecasting has been shown to be very promising. Benchmark datasets are a key element in the further…

The hard X-ray emission in a solar flare is typically characterized by a number of discrete sources, each with its own spectral, temporal, and spatial variability. Establishing the relationship amongst these sources is critical to determine…

We present a statistical analysis of properties of Soft X-Ray (SXR) emission, plasma temperature (T), and emission measure (EM), derived from GOES observations of flares in 2002-2017. The temperature and emission measures are obtained using…