Related papers: A Statistical Solar Flare Forecast Method
Accurate and reliable solar flare predictions are essential to mitigate potential impacts on critical infrastructure. However, the current performance of solar flare forecasting is insufficient. In this study, we address the task of…
We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). The primary aim of this investigation is to explore the construction of an ensemble for an initial prototyping of this new concept.…
Solar flares result from the rapid conversion of stored magnetic energy within the Sun's corona. These energy releases are associated with coronal magnetic loops, which are rooted in dense photospheric plasma and are passively transported…
We investigate the use of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Decomposition-LSTM (DLSTM) networks, combined with an ensemble algorithm, to predict solar flare occurrences using time-series data from the GOES catalog. The dataset spans from…
Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are one of the most crucial aspects of space weather. Their prediction depends on various factors including the source solar eruptions such as flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The Geostationary…
We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI…
The most powerful explosions on the Sun [...] drive the most severe space-weather storms. Proxy records of flare energies based on SEPs in principle may offer the longest time base to study infrequent large events. We conclude that one…
Understanding the physical processes that trigger solar flares is paramount to help with forecasting space weather and mitigating the effects on our technological infrastructure. A previously unknown phenomenon was recently identified in…
Positioned at geostationary orbit (GEO) ~36,000 km above Earth, NOAA's GOES series has recorded real-time energetic proton flux measurements crucial for space weather monitoring for over three decades. Although machine learning models have…
This study investigates the statistical behavior of plasma properties during Hot Onset Precursor Events (HOPEs) of solar flares and evaluates their potential for improving flare nowcasting. Two datasets are analyzed: (a) new Soft X-Ray…
Solar active regions and the processes that occur in them have been extensively studied and analyzed and many types of models and characterizations have been proposed for the occurrence of different eruptive events that take place in the…
Current solar flare predictions often lack precise quantification of their reliability, resulting in frequent false alarms, particularly when dealing with datasets skewed towards extreme events. To improve the trustworthiness of space…
Improving irradiance forecasting is critical to further increase the share of solar in the energy mix. On a short time scale, fish-eye cameras on the ground are used to capture cloud displacements causing the local variability of the…
A time series of soft X-ray emission observed on 1974-2007 years (GOES) is analyzed. We show that in the periods of high solar activity 1977-1981, 1988-1992, 1999-2003 the energy statistics of soft X-ray solar flares for class M and C is…
An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric…
The solar wind speed at Earth is one of the most important parameters regarding the effects of space weather on society. Thus far, most approaches for predicting the solar wind speed produce a single-value time series without uncertainty,…
The soft X-ray emissions of solar flares come mainly from the bright coronal loops at the highest temperatures normally achieved in the flare process. Their ubiquity has led to their use as a standard measure of flare occurrence and energy,…
Solar Energetic Particle events (SEPs) are among the most dangerous transient phenomena of solar activity. As hazardous radiation, SEPs may affect the health of astronauts in outer space and adversely impact current and future space…
The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite R (GOES-R) series of four satellites are the next generation NOAA GOES satellites. Once on orbit and commissioned, they are renamed GOES 16-19, making critical terrestrial and space…
A statistical analysis of almost 50000 soft X-ray (SXR) flares observed by GOES during the period 1976-2000 is presented. On the basis of this extensive data set, statistics on temporal properties of soft X-ray flares, such as duration,…