Related papers: A Statistical Solar Flare Forecast Method
Space weather predictions of the solar wind impacting Earth are usually first based on remote-sensing observations of the solar disc and corona, and eventually validated and/or refined with in-situ measurements taken at the Sun$-$Earth…
The ability to analyze and forecast stratospheric weather conditions is fundamental to addressing climate change. However, our capacity to collect data in the stratosphere is limited by sparsely deployed weather balloons. We propose a…
This study focuses on forecasting major (>=M-class) solar flares that can severely impact the near-Earth environment. We construct two types of datasets using the Space Weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP), and develop a flare…
We propose a new method for conducting Bayesian prediction that delivers accurate predictions without correctly specifying the unknown true data generating process. A prior is defined over a class of plausible predictive models. After…
Applications of satellite data in areas such as weather tracking and modeling, ecosystem monitoring, wildfire detection, and land-cover change are heavily dependent on the trade-offs to spatial, spectral and temporal resolutions of…
This paper proposes to use a rather new modelling approach in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Neural Network (NN) models are combined to form a model…
We propose a fully probabilistic prediction model for spatially aggregated solar photovoltaic (PV) power production at an hourly time scale with lead times up to several days using weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction systems…
Solar flare prediction is a central problem in space weather forecasting and has captivated the attention of a wide spectrum of researchers due to recent advances in both remote sensing as well as machine learning and deep learning…
Active region 11029 was a small, highly flare-productive solar active region observed at a time of extremely low solar activity. The region produced only small flares: the largest of the $>70$ Geostationary Observational Environmental…
The physics of solar flares occurring on the Sun is highly complex and far from fully understood. However, observations show that solar eruptions are associated with the intense kilogauss fields of active regions, where free energies are…
(abridged) The acceleration of particles at the Sun and their propagation through interplanetary space are key topics in heliophysics. Specifically, solar energetic electrons (SEEs) measured in situ can be linked to solar flares and coronal…
The physical processes that trigger solar flares are not well understood and significant debate remains around processes governing particle acceleration, energy partition, and particle and energy transport. Observations at high resolution…
Model simulations of solar irradiance reaching the Earth's surface during a solar eclipse constitute a useful tool for studying the impact of this phenomenon on the radiance propagation through the atmosphere. A simple approach to extend…
Superflares on solar-type stars has been a rapidly developing field ever since the launch of $\it Kepler$. Over the years, there have been several studies investigating the statistics of these explosive events. In this study, we present a…
We assess the predictive capabilities of various classes of avalanche models for solar flares. We demonstrate that avalanche models cannot generally be used to predict specific events due to their high sensitivity to their embedded…
Solar flares are one of the most energetic events in the solar system, their impact on Earth at ground level and its atmosphere remains under study. The repercussions of this phenomenon in our technological infrastructure includes radio…
Here we present a Bayesian method of including discrete measurements of dispersion measure due to the interstellar medium in the direction of a pulsar as prior information in the analysis of that pulsar. We use a simple simulation to show…
We analyse the temporal evolution of the Differential Emission Measure (DEM) of solar active regions and explore its usage in solar flare prediction. The DEM maps are provided by the Gaussian Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (GAIA-DEM) archive,…
With increasing concerns of climate change, renewable resources such as photovoltaic (PV) have gained popularity as a means of energy generation. The smooth integration of such resources in power system operations is enabled by accurate…
In this study, we examine a Bayesian approach to analyze extreme daily rainfall amounts and forecast return-levels. Estimating the probability of occurrence and quantiles of future extreme events is important in many applications, including…