Related papers: A Statistical Solar Flare Forecast Method
We developed a reliable probabilistic solar flare forecasting model using a deep neural network, named Deep Flare Net-Reliable (DeFN-R). The model can predict the maximum classes of flares that occur in the following 24 h after observing…
The application of machine learning in solar physics has the potential to greatly enhance our understanding of the complex processes that take place in the atmosphere of the Sun. By using techniques such as deep learning, we are now in the…
With the recent interest in net-zero sustainability for commercial buildings, integration of photovoltaic (PV) assets becomes even more important. This integration remains a challenge due to high solar variability and uncertainty in the…
Foundation models have demonstrated remarkable success across various scientific domains, motivating our exploration of their potential in solar physics. In this paper, we present Solaris, the first foundation model for forecasting the…
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections are interrelated phenomena that together are known as solar eruptive events. These are the main drivers of space weather and understanding their origins is a primary goal of Heliophysics. In this…
Solar irradiance is fundamental data crucial for analyses related to weather and climate. High-precision estimation models are necessary to create areal data for solar irradiance. In this study, we developed a novel estimation model by…
We propose a statistical space-time model for predicting atmospheric wind speed based on deterministic numerical weather predictions and historical measurements. We consider a Gaussian multivariate space-time framework that combines…
Geomagnetic storms, disturbances of Earth's magnetosphere caused by masses of charged particles being emitted from the Sun, are an uncontrollable threat to modern technology. Notably, they have the potential to damage satellites and cause…
Observations of the Sun and of Sun-like stars provide access to different aspects of stellar magnetic activity that, when combined, help us piece together a more comprehensive picture than can be achieved from only the solar or the stellar…
The aim of this white paper is to briefly summarize some of the outstanding gaps in the observations and modeling of stellar flares, CMEs, and exoplanetary space weather, and to discuss how the theoretical and computational tools and…
Based on a sample of 1114 flares observed simultaneously in hard X-rays (HXR) by the BATSE instrument and in soft X-rays (SXR) by GOES, we studied several aspects of the Neupert effect and its interpretation in the frame of the…
In recent years (2000-2021), human-space activities have been increasing faster than ever. More than 36000 Earth' orbiting objects, all larger than 10 cm, in orbit around the Earth, are currently tracked by the European Space Agency (ESA).…
Adverse space weather effects can often be traced to solar flares, prediction of which has drawn significant research interests. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) produces full-disk vector magnetograms with continuous high cadence,…
This study attempts to establish a basis for understanding how methods used in research in solar physics have evolved since World War II (WWII). The goal is to begin to explore if and how the changing research environment affects the…
Numerical weather forecasts can exhibit systematic errors due to simplifying model assumptions and computational approximations. Statistical postprocessing is a statistical approach to correcting such biases. A statistical postprocessing…
This study explores the behavior of machine learning-based flare forecasting models deployed in a simulated operational environment. Using Georgia State University's Space Weather Analytics for Solar Flares benchmark dataset (Angryk et al.…
Geostationary satellites collect high-resolution weather data comprising a series of images which can be used to estimate wind speed and direction at different altitudes. The Derived Motion Winds (DMW) Algorithm is commonly used to process…
This white paper recognizes gaps in observations that will, when addressed, much improve solar radiation hazard and geomagnetic storm forecasting. Radiation forecasting depends on observations of the entire "Solar Radiation Hemisphere" that…
Studying solar wind conditions is central to forecasting impact of space weather on Earth. Under the assumption that the structure of this wind is constant in time and corotates with the Sun, solar wind and thereby space weather forecasts…
Large solar flares occasionally trigger significant space-weather disturbances that affect the technological infrastructures of modern civilization, and therefore require further investigation. Although these solar flares have been…