Related papers: A Beta-GAM Hidden Markov Model for Proportion Time…
Recent studies have proposed that one can summarize brain activity into dynamics among a relatively small number of hidden states and that such an approach is a promising tool for revealing brain function. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are a…
Many natural and engineered systems can be modeled as discrete state Markov processes. Often, only a subset of states are directly observable. Inferring the conditional probability that a system occupies a particular hidden state, given the…
Hidden Markov models can describe time series arising in various fields of science, by treating the data as noisy measurements of an arbitrarily complex Markov process. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods have become standard tools to…
We compare different selection criteria to choose the number of latent states of a multivariate latent Markov model for longitudinal data. This model is based on an underlying Markov chain to represent the evolution of a latent…
In this paper we study estimating Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) in the case where the agents (individuals) are strategic or self-interested and they concern about their privacy when reporting data. Compared with the classical setting,…
We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the…
The P\'olya tree (PT) process is a general-purpose Bayesian nonparametric model that has found wide application in a range of inference problems. It has a simple analytic form and the posterior computation boils down to beta-binomial…
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of jointly modeling multiple related time series. Our approach is based on the discovery of a set of latent, shared dynamical behaviors. Using a beta process prior, the size of the…
Hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) are latent variable models which allow latent state persistence and can be viewed as a generalization of the popular hidden Markov models (HMMs). In this paper, we introduce a novel spectral algorithm to…
Multi-state models are frequently applied for representing processes evolving through a discrete set of state. Important classes of multi-state models arise when transitions between states may depend on the time since entry into the current…
Exact inference for hidden Markov models requires the evaluation of all distributions of interest - filtering, prediction, smoothing and likelihood - with a finite computational effort. This article provides sufficient conditions for exact…
Recently, there has been a surge of interest in using spectral methods for estimating latent variable models. However, it is usually assumed that the distribution of the observations conditioned on the latent variables is either discrete or…
Financial markets tend to switch between various market regimes over time, making stationarity-based models unsustainable. We construct a regime-switching model independent of asset classes for risk-adjusted return predictions based on…
We propose a methodology to analyze data arising from a curve that, over its domain, switches among J states. We consider a sequence of response variables, where each response y depends on a covariate x according to an unobserved state z.…
The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…
We present a new algorithm for discovering patterns in time series and other sequential data. We exhibit a reliable procedure for building the minimal set of hidden, Markovian states that is statistically capable of producing the behavior…
Density tempering (also called density annealing) is a sequential Monte Carlo approach to Bayesian inference for general state models; it is an alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo. When applied to state space models, it moves a…
Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the…
Motivated by applications in movement ecology, in this paper I propose a new class of integrated continuous-time hidden Markov models in which each observation depends on the underlying state of the process over the whole interval since the…
The hidden Markov model (HMM) is a generative model that treats sequential data under the assumption that each observation is conditioned on the state of a discrete hidden variable that evolves in time as a Markov chain. In this paper, we…