Related papers: A Beta-GAM Hidden Markov Model for Proportion Time…
We search for digital biomarkers from Parkinson's Disease by observing approximate repetitive patterns matching hypothesized step and stride periodic cycles. These observations were modeled as a cycle of hidden states with randomness…
We propose to model time-varying periodic and oscillatory processes by means of a hidden Markov model where the states are defined through the spectral properties of a periodic regime. The number of states is unknown along with the relevant…
We address the problem of detecting an anomalous process among a large number of processes. At each time t, normal processes are in state zero (normal state), while the abnormal process may be in either state zero (normal state) or state…
We propose a semi-partitioned Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) framework for analyzing longitudinal data with time-dependent covariates, within a marginal modeling paradigm. This approach addresses limitations of both aggregated and…
This paper addresses the task of modeling severity losses using segmentation when the data distribution does not fall into the usual regression frameworks. This situation is not uncommon in lines of business such as third-party liability…
Psychological change processes, such as university student dropout in math, often exhibit discrete latent state transitions and can be studied using regime-switching models with intensive longitudinal data (ILD). Recently, regime-switching…
This work studies networked agents cooperating to track a dynamical state of nature under partial information. The proposed algorithm is a distributed Bayesian filtering algorithm for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs). It can be used…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic methods in which observations are seen as realizations of a latent Markov process with discrete states that switch over time. Moving beyond standard statistical tests, HMMs offer a statistical…
We introduce and analyze a waiting time model for the accumulation of genetic changes. The continuous time conjunctive Bayesian network is defined by a partially ordered set of mutations and by the rate of fixation of each mutation. The…
Markov-switching models are powerful tools that allow capturing complex patterns from time series data driven by latent states. Recent work has highlighted the benefits of estimating components of these models nonparametrically, enhancing…
Transparent models, which provide inherently interpretable predictions, are receiving significant attention in high-stakes domains. However, despite much real-world data being collected as time series, there is a lack of studies on…
Markov state models (MSMs) have been broadly adopted for analyzing molecular dynamics trajectories, but the approximate nature of the models that results from coarse-graining into discrete states is a long-known limitation. We show…
Motivated by disease progression-related studies, we propose an estimation method for fitting general non-homogeneous multi-state Markov models. The proposal can handle many types of multi-state processes, with several states and various…
This paper proposes a joint model for longitudinal binary and count outcomes. We apply the model to a unique longitudinal study of teen driving where risky driving behavior and the occurrence of crashes or near crashes are measured…
We consider a binary unsupervised classification problem where each observation is associated with an unobserved label that we want to retrieve. More precisely, we assume that there are two groups of observation: normal and abnormal. The…
We revisit a model for time-varying linear regression that assumes the unknown parameters evolve according to a linear dynamical system. Counterintuitively, we show that when the underlying dynamics are stable the parameters of this model…
Efficient assessment of convolved hidden Markov models is discussed. The bottom-layer is defined as an unobservable categorical first-order Markov chain, while the middle-layer is assumed to be a Gaussian spatial variable conditional on the…
This paper considers estimating the parameters in a regime-switching stochastic differential equation(SDE) driven by Normal Inverse Gaussian(NIG) noise. The model under consideration incorporates a continuous-time finite state Markov chain…
We introduce the Reduced-Rank Hidden Markov Model (RR-HMM), a generalization of HMMs that can model smooth state evolution as in Linear Dynamical Systems (LDSs) as well as non-log-concave predictive distributions as in…
Characterizing the sleep-wake cycle in adolescents is an important prerequisite to better understand the association of abnormal sleep patterns with subsequent clinical and behavioral outcomes. The aim of this research was to develop hidden…