Related papers: A Beta-GAM Hidden Markov Model for Proportion Time…
Hidden semi-Markov models generalise hidden Markov models by explicitly modelling the time spent in a given state, the so-called dwell time, using some distribution defined on the natural numbers. While the (shifted) Poisson and negative…
Generating synthetic financial time series that preserve the statistical properties of real market data is essential for stress testing, risk model validation, and scenario design. Existing approaches struggle to simultaneously reproduce…
The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is one of the mainstays of statistical modeling of discrete time series, with applications including speech recognition, computational biology, computer vision and econometrics. Estimating an HMM from its…
This paper proposes a hierarchical modeling approach to perform stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models. We assume that a common distribution gives rise to the regime-specific regression…
The use of non parametric hidden Markov models with finite state space is flourishing in practice while few theoretical guarantees are known in this framework. Here, we study asymptotic guarantees for these models in the Bayesian framework.…
We demonstrate the application of pattern recognition algorithms via hidden Markov models (HMM) for qubit readout. This scheme provides a state-path trajectory approach capable of detecting qubit state transitions and makes for a robust…
We consider Markov models of stochastic processes where the next-step conditional distribution is defined by a kernel density estimator (KDE), similar to Markov forecast densities and certain time-series bootstrap schemes. The KDE Markov…
We propose a Neural Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with Adaptive Granularity Attention (AGA) for high-frequency order flow modeling. The model addresses the challenge of capturing multi-scale temporal dynamics in financial markets, where…
A class of multivariate periodic autoregressive models is proposed where coupling between time series is achieved through linear mean functions. Various response distributions with quadratic mean-variance relationships fit into the…
Finite mixture and Markov-switching models generalize and, therefore, nest specifications featuring only one component. While specifying priors in the two: the general (mixture) model and its special (single-component) case, it may be…
We introduce graph gamma process (GGP) linear dynamical systems to model real-valued multivariate time series. For temporal pattern discovery, the latent representation under the model is used to decompose the time series into a…
The identification of factors associated with mental and behavioral disorders in early childhood is critical both for psychopathology research and the support of primary health care practices. Motivated by the Millennium Cohort Study, in…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely applied in studies where a discrete-valued process of interest is observed indirectly. They have for example been used to model behaviour from human and animal tracking data, disease status from…
Hidden variables are ubiquitous in practical data analysis, and therefore modeling marginal densities and doing inference with the resulting models is an important problem in statistics, machine learning, and causal inference. Recently, a…
Herein, the Hidden Markov Model is expanded to allow for Markov chain observations. In particular, the observations are assumed to be a Markov chain whose one step transition probabilities depend upon the hidden Markov chain. An…
Hidden Markov Models (HMM) model a sequence of observations that are dependent on a hidden (or latent) state that follow a Markov chain. These models are widely used in diverse fields including ecology, speech recognition, and…
Asymptotic properties of Markov Processes, such as steady state probabilities or hazard rate for absorbing states can be efficiently calculated by means of linear algebra even for large-scale problems. This paper discusses the methods for…
We propose a probabilistic modeling framework for learning the dynamic patterns in the collective behaviors of social agents and developing profiles for different behavioral groups, using data collected from multiple information sources.…
To capture the death rates and strong weekly, biweekly and probably monthly patterns in the Canada COVID-19, we utilize the generalized additive models in the absence of direct statistically based measurement of infection rates. By…
We introduce multiple hidden Markov models (MHMMs) where an observed multivariate categorical time series depends on an unobservable multivariate Mar- kov chain. MHMMs provide an elegant framework for specifying various independence…