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This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-07 Demian Pouzo , Zacharias Psaradakis , Martin Sola

Route-level travel time reliability requires characterizing the distribution of total travel time across correlated segments -- a problem where existing methods either assume independence (fast but miscalibrated) or model dependence via…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-10 Vadim Sokolov , Refik Soyer

In this paper, we introduce a variant of hidden Markov models in which the transition probabilities between the states, as well as the emission distributions, are not constant in time but vary in a periodic manner. This class of models,…

Applications · Statistics 2018-02-23 Augustin Touron

We propose a modified version of the three-step estimation method for the latent class model with covariates, which may be used to estimate latent Markov models for longitudinal data. The three-step estimation approach we propose is based…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-06 Francesco Bartolucci , Giorgio E. Montanari , Silvia Pandolfi

People are living longer than ever before, and with this arises new complications and challenges for humanity. Among the most pressing of these challenges is of understanding the role of aging in the development of dementia. This paper is…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-07 Jonathan P Williams , Curtis B Storlie , Terry M Therneau , Clifford R Jack , Jan Hannig

We deal with the estimation of the regime number in a linear Gaussian autoregressive process with a Markov regime (AR-MR). The problem of estimating the number of regimes in this type of series is that of determining the number of states in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-11-21 Ricardo Ríos , Luis-Angel Rodríguez

This work attempts to approximate a linear Gaussian system with a finite-state hidden Markov model (HMM), which is found useful in solving sophisticated event-based state estimation problems. An indirect modeling approach is developed,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-07-10 Kaikai Zheng , Dawei Shi , Ling Shi

The well-established methodology for the estimation of hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) as hidden Markov models (HMMs) with extended state spaces is further developed to incorporate covariate influences across all aspects of the state…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-24 Jan-Ole Koslik

Continuous-time state-space models (SSMs) are flexible tools for analysing irregularly sampled sequential observations that are driven by an underlying state process. Corresponding applications typically involve restrictive assumptions…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-29 Sina Mews , Roland Langrock , Marius Ötting , Houda Yaqine , Jost Reinecke

Industrial processes generate a massive amount of monitoring data that can be exploited to uncover hidden time losses in the system. This can be used to enhance the accuracy of maintenance policies and increase the effectiveness of the…

Applications · Statistics 2025-08-27 Fernando Miguelez , Josu Doncel , Maria Dolores Ugarte

State-space models (SSM) with Markov switching offer a powerful framework for detecting multiple regimes in time series, analyzing mutual dependence and dynamics within regimes, and asserting transitions between regimes. These models…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-14 David Degras , Chee-Ming Ting , Hernando Ombao

Multivariate time series analysis is becoming an integral part of data analysis pipelines. Understanding the individual time point connections between covariates as well as how these connections change in time is non-trivial. To this aim,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-04 Federico Ciech , Veronica Tozzo

We illustrate a class of conditional models for the analysis of longitudinal data suffering attrition in random effects models framework, where the subject-specific random effects are assumed to be discrete and to follow a time-dependent…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-28 Antonello Maruotti

Hidden Markov models are versatile tools for modeling sequential observations, where it is assumed that a hidden state process selects which of finitely many distributions generates any given observation. Specifically for time series of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-11 Timo Adam , Roland Langrock , Christian H. Weiß

Continuous-time multistate models are widely used for analyzing interval-censored data on disease progression over time. Sometimes, diseases manifest differently and what appears to be a coherent collection of symptoms is the expression of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-08 Yidan Shi , Leilei Zeng , Mary E. Thompson , Suzanne L. Tyas

In unsupervised classification, Hidden Markov Models (HMM) are used to account for a neighborhood structure between observations. The emission distributions are often supposed to belong to some parametric family. In this paper, a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-06-25 Stevenn Volant , Caroline Bérard , Marie-Laure Martin-Magniette , Stéphane Robin

In this paper, we prove that finite state space non parametric hidden Markov models are identifiable as soon as the transition matrix of the latent Markov chain has full rank and the emission probability distributions are linearly…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-06-20 Elisabeth Gassiat , Alice Cleynen , Stéphane Robin

This study introduces a novel generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) for mortality modelling, utilizing the mortality covariate $k_t$ as proposed by Dastranj-Kolar. Our findings indicate that the GAMM effectively addresses this…

Applications · Statistics 2025-11-18 Reza Dastranj , Martin Kolar

Discrete-time hidden Markov models are a broadly useful class of latent-variable models with applications in areas such as speech recognition, bioinformatics, and climate data analysis. It is common in practice to introduce temporal…

Applications · Statistics 2017-01-16 Tracy Holsclaw , Arthur M. Greene , Andrew W. Robertson , Padhraic Smyth

This paper considers hidden Markov models where the observations are given as the sum of a latent state which lies in a general state space and some independent noise with unknown distribution. It is shown that these fully nonparametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-30 Elisabeth Gassiat , Sylvain Le Corff , Luc Lehéricy