Related papers: Statistical warning indicators for abrupt transiti…
We review some properties of dynamical systems with slowly varying parameters, when a parameter is moved through a bifurcation point of the static system. Bifurcations with a single zero eigenvalue may create hysteresis cycles, whose area…
Paleoclimate proxy records and models suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can transition abruptly between a strong and a weak state. Empirical warning signals in observational fingerprints indeed suggest a…
Near a bifurcation point a system experiences critical slowing down. This leads to scaling behavior of fluctuations. We find that a periodically driven system may display three scaling regimes and scaling crossovers near a saddle-node…
Identification of the parameters of stable linear dynamical systems is a well-studied problem in the literature, both in the low and high-dimensional settings. However, there are hardly any results for the unstable case, especially…
Complex systems exhibiting critical transitions when one of their governing parameters varies are ubiquitous in nature and in engineering applications. Despite a vast literature focusing on this topic, there are few studies dealing with the…
We study a system of dynamical units, each of which shows excitable or oscillatory behavior, depending on the choice of parameters. When we couple these units with repressive bonds, we can control the duration of collective oscillations for…
The paper is focused on the discussion of the phenomenon of transitional chaos in dynamic autonomous and non-autonomous systems. This phenomenon involves the disappearance of chaotic oscillations in specific time periods and the system…
Gradual changes in exploitation, nutrient loading, etc. produce shifts between alternative stable states (ASS) in ecosystems which, quite often, are not smooth but abrupt or catastrophic. Early warnings of such catastrophic regime shifts…
Bank crisis is challenging to define but can be manifested through bank contagion. This study presents a comprehensive framework grounded in nonlinear time series analysis to identify potential early warning signals (EWS) for impending…
Early warning signals (EWSs) forewarn a sudden transition (or tipping) from a desirable state to an undesirable state. However, we observe that EWSs detect an impending tipping past bifurcation points when control parameters are varied…
We investigate an epidemiological model that incorporates waning of immunity at the individual level and boosting of the immune system upon re-exposure to the pathogen. When immunity is fully restored upon boosting, the system can be…
This paper studies the problem of event-triggered impulsive control for discrete-time systems. A novel periodic event-triggering scheme with two tunable parameters is presented to determine the moments of updating impulsive control signals…
In contemporary educational systems, academic performance indicators play a central role in institutional evaluation and in the interpretation of student trajectories. However, under conditions of rapid technological change, the inferential…
Phase transitions are fundamental features of statistical physics. While the well-studied continuous phase transitions are known to be controlled by external \textit{macroscopic} changes in the order parameter, the origin of abrupt…
The effect of stochasticity, in the form of Gaussian white noise, in a predator-prey model with two distinct time-scales is presented. A supercritical singular Hopf bifurcation yields a Type II excitability in the deterministic model. We…
Early-warning signals of delicate design are always used to predict critical transitions in complex systems, which makes it possible to render the systems far away from the catastrophic state by introducing timely interventions. Traditional…
Under-ice blooms in the Arctic can develop rapidly under conditions where conventional early warning signals based on critical slowing down fail due to strong noise or limited observational records. We analyze noise-induced transitions in a…
Monitoring economic conditions and financial stability with an early warning system serves as a prevention mechanism for unexpected economic events. In this paper, we investigate the statistical performance of sequential break-point…
It is well known that the addition of noise in a multistable system can induce random transitions between stable states. The rate of transition can be characterised in terms of the noise-free system's dynamics and the added noise: for…
In this work, we study the unpredictability of seasonal infectious diseases considering a SEIRS model with seasonal forcing. To investigate the dynamical behaviour, we compute bifurcation diagrams type hysteresis and their respective…