Unpredictability in seasonal infectious diseases spread
Abstract
In this work, we study the unpredictability of seasonal infectious diseases considering a SEIRS model with seasonal forcing. To investigate the dynamical behaviour, we compute bifurcation diagrams type hysteresis and their respective Lyapunov exponents. Our results from bifurcations and the largest Lyapunov exponent show bistable dynamics for all the parameters of the model. Choosing the inverse of latent period as control parameter, over 70% of the interval comprises the coexistence of periodic and chaotic attractors, bistable dynamics. Despite the competition between these attractors, the chaotic ones are preferred. The bistability occurs in two wide regions. One of these regions is limited by periodic attractors, while periodic and chaotic attractors bound the other. As the boundary of the second bistable region is composed of periodic and chaotic attractors, it is possible to interpret these critical points as tipping points. In other words, depending on the latent period, a periodic attractor (predictability) can evolve to a chaotic attractor (unpredictability). Therefore, we show that unpredictability is associated with bistable dynamics preferably chaotic, and, furthermore, there is a tipping point associated with unpredictable dynamics.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2212.04244,
title = {Unpredictability in seasonal infectious diseases spread},
author = {Enrique C. Gabrick and Elaheh Sayari and Paulo R. Protachevicz and José D. Szezech and Kelly C. Iarosz and Silvio L. T. de Souza and Alexandre C. L. Almeida and Ricardo L. Viana and Iberê L. Caldas and Antonio M. Batista},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2212.04244},
year = {2022}
}