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Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-06-21 John B. Rundle , Geoffrey Fox , Andrea Donnellan , Lisa Grant Ludwig

We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2015-05-18 Bin Wang , Ya-Zheng Chen , Xue-Qian Li

We have written a new equation to study the statistics of earthquake distributions. We call this equation "the generalized logistic equation". The Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude formula was derived from the solution of the…

Geophysics · Physics 2012-09-25 Lev A. Maslov , Vladimir M. Anokhin

Recent studies in the literature have introduced a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on representing the space-time patterns of localized seismicity by a time-dependent system state vector in a real-valued Hilbert space and…

In this paper, I introduce a novel approach to modelling the individual random component (also called the intra-event uncertainty) of a ground-motion relation (GMR), as well as a novel approach to estimating the corresponding parameters. In…

Geophysics · Physics 2016-07-20 Mathias Raschke

Terra Seismic can predict most major earthquakes (M6.2 or greater) at least 2 - 5 months before they will strike. Global earthquake prediction is based on determinations of the stressed areas that will start to behave abnormally before…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-03-18 Oleg Elshin , Andrew A. Tronin

Earthquake prediction has been a challenging research area for many decades, where the future occurrence of this highly uncertain calamity is predicted. In this paper, several parametric and non-parametric features were calculated, where…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-01-25 Gunbir Singh Baveja , Jaspreet Singh

A multicomponent random process used as a model for the problem of space-time earthquake prediction; this allows us to develop consistent estimation for conditional probabilities of large earthquakes if the values of the predictor…

Geophysics · Physics 2009-04-28 V. M. Ghertzik

Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-06-17 Yan Y. Kagan , David D. Jackson

The area-characteristic, maximum possible earthquake magnitude $T_M$ is required by the earthquake engineering community, disaster management agencies and the insurance industry. The Gutenberg-Richter law predicts that earthquake magnitudes…

Applications · Statistics 2018-01-19 Jan Beirlant , Andrzej Kijko , Tom Reynkens , John H. J. Einmahl

It was conjectured for a long time that the tectonic plates are in a self-organized state of criticality and that the Gutenberg-Richter law is a manifestation of that. It was recently shown that for a system near criticality, the inequality…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-02-12 Sudip Sarkar , Soumyajyoti Biswas

We present a model for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m > 4.95 in Italy. The model, a slightly modified version of the one proposed for California by Helmstetter et al. (2007) and Werner et al. (2010),…

Geophysics · Physics 2012-07-26 M. J. Werner , A. Helmstetter , D. D. Jackson , Y. Y. Kagan , S. Wiemer

In this article we implemented simulations of the OFC model for earthquakes for two different topologies: regular and small-world, where in the latter the links are randomly rewired with probability $p$ . In both topologies, we have studied…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2014-05-05 Douglas S. R. Ferreira , Andrés R. R. Papa , Ronaldo Menezes

The successful prediction of earthquakes is one of the holy grails in Earth Sciences. Traditional predictions use statistical information on recurrence intervals, but those predictions are not accurate enough. In a recent paper, a machine…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-11-16 Silke van Klaveren , Ivan Vasconcelos , Andre Niemeijer

One of the main interests in seismology is the formulation of models able to describe the clustering in time occurrence of earthquakes. Analysis of the Southern California Catalog shows magnitude clustering in correspondence to temporal…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 Eugenio Lippiello , Cataldo Godano , Lucilla de Arcangelis

Based on the geodynamics, an earthquake does not take place until the momentum-energy excess a faulting threshold value of rock due to the movement of the fluid layer under the rock layer and the transport and accumulation of the momentum.…

General Physics · Physics 2008-02-05 Yi-Fang Chang

We analyze the space-time patterns of earthquake occurrence in southern California using a new method that treats earthquakes as a phase dynamical system. The system state vector is used to obtain a probability measure for current and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Kristy F. Tiampo , John B. Rundle , Seth McGinnis , Susanna Gross , William Klein

We propose a new method to test the effectiveness of a spatial point process forecast based on a log-likelihood score for predicted point density and the information gain for events that actually occurred in the test period. The method…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2010-11-24 Yan Y. Kagan

The rapid proliferation of deep-learning-based detection and association methods has greatly expanded automatically generated earthquake catalogs, but has also introduced false detections, mis-associated arrivals, and poorly constrained…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-03-03 Ziye Yu , Jinqing Sun , Yuqi Cai , Zemin Liu , Pingping Wu , Xin Liu , Jiayan Tan

The driving concept behind one of the most successful statistical forecasting models, the ETAS model, has been that the seismicity is driven by spontaneously occurring background earthquakes that cascade into multitudes of triggered…

Geophysics · Physics 2019-05-22 Shyam Nandan , Guy Ouillon , Didier Sornette