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Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event.…
Computational earthquake sequence models provide generative estimates of the time, location, and size of synthetic seismic events that can be compared with observed earthquake histories and assessed as rupture forecasts. Here we describe a…
We propose a novel method for analyzing precursory seismic data before an earthquake that treats them as a Markov process and distinguishes the background noise from real fluctuations due to an earthquake. A short time (on the order of…
We consider two issues related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) what is the repeat time for the largest earthquakes in this area, and (2) what are the possibilities of numerical short-term forecasts during the 2011 earthquake…
Advancing the capabilities of earthquake nowcasting, the real-time forecasting of seismic activities remains a crucial and enduring objective aimed at reducing casualties. This multifaceted challenge has recently gained attention within the…
Testing earthquake forecasts is essential to obtain scientific information on forecasting models and sufficient credibility for societal usage. We aim at enhancing the testing phase proposed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake…
Forecasting the full distribution of the number of earthquakes is revealed to be inherently superior to forecasting their mean. Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is also shown to yield robust projections in the…
Motivated by the fact that empirical time series of earthquakes exhibit long-range correlations in space and time and the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of magnitudes, we propose a simple fault model that can account for these types of…
This paper provides theoretical and practical arguments regarding the possibility of predicting strong and major earthquakes worldwide. Many strong and major earthquakes can be predicted at least two to five months in advance, based on…
A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the…
We test the concept that seismicity prior to a large earthquake can be understood in terms of the statistical physics of a critical phase transition. In this model, the cumulative seismic strain release increases as a power-law…
In the presented paper the possible methods of the large earthquake prediction are offered. During the study, it was used data of the INFREP (European Network of Electromagnetic Radiation) existent before earthquake. The elaborated methods…
Accurate earthquake location, which determines the origin time and location of seismic events using phase arrival times or waveforms, is fundamental to earthquake monitoring. While recent deep learning advances have significantly improved…
Earthquakes are commonly estimated using physical seismic stations, however, due to the installation requirements and costs of these stations, global coverage quickly becomes impractical. An efficient and lower-cost alternative is to…
The statistics of earthquakes in a heterogeneous fault zone is studied analytically and numerically in the mean field version of a model for a segmented fault system in a three-dimensional elastic solid. The studies focus on the interplay…
We report new tests of the critical earthquake concepts performed on rockbursts in deep South African mines. We extend the concept of an optimal time and space correlation region and test it on the eight main shocks of our catalog provided…
We present a novel algorithm that predicts the probability that the time derivative of the horizontal component of the ground magnetic field $dB/dt$ exceeds a specified threshold at a given location. This quantity provides important…
We present a method for locating the seismic event epicenters without assuming an Earth model of the seismic velocity structure, based on the linear relationship between $\log R$ and $\log t$ (where $R$ is the radius of spherical P wave…
Earthquakes can be detected by matching spatial patterns or phase properties from 1-D seismic waves. Current earthquake detection methods, such as waveform correlation and template matching, have difficulty detecting anomalous earthquakes…
In this paper, we used the Global Catalog of the National Earthquake Information Center US Geological Survey (NEIC USGS) for analysis of the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes. We selected the unimodal part of the distribution…