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Accurate spatiotemporal modeling of conditions leading to moderate and large wildfires provides better understanding of mechanisms driving fire-prone ecosystems and improves risk management. We here develop a joint model for the occurrence…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-15 Jonathan Koh , François Pimont , Jean-Luc Dupuy , Thomas Opitz

As the climate changes, the severity of wildland fires is expected to worsen. Models that accurately capture fire propagation dynamics greatly help efforts for understanding, responding to and mitigating the damages caused by these fires.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-12 John Burge , Matthew Bonanni , Matthias Ihme , Lily Hu

Predicting the spread of wildfires is essential for effective fire management and risk assessment. With the fast advancements of artificial intelligence (AI), various deep learning models have been developed and utilized for wildfire spread…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-11-25 Jiyeon Kim , Yingjie Hu , Negar Elhami-Khorasani , Kai Sun , Ryan Zhenqi Zhou

Rapid and accurate wildfire detection is crucial for emergency response and environmental management. In airborne and spaceborne missions, real-time algorithms must distinguish between no fire, active fire, and post-fire conditions, and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Mark Moussa , Andre Williams , Seth Roffe , Douglas Morton

Wildfires are an escalating global concern due to the devastating impacts on the environment, economy, and human health, with notable incidents such as the 2019-2020 Australian bushfires and the 2025 California wildfires underscoring the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Weihao Li , Hongjin Zhao , Gao Zhu , Ge-Peng Ji , Nicholas Wilson , Marta Yebra , Nick Barnes

Wildfires have significantly increased in the United States (U.S.), making certain areas harder to live in. This motivates us to jointly analyze active fires and population changes in the U.S. from July 2020 to June 2021. The available data…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-19 Shijie Zhou , Jonathan R. Bradley

Each year, wildfires destroy larger areas of Spain, threatening numerous ecosystems. Humans cause 90% of them (negligence or provoked) and the behaviour of individuals is unpredictable. However, atmospheric and environmental variables…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-06-09 Helena Liz-López , Javier Huertas-Tato , Jorge Pérez-Aracil , Carlos Casanova-Mateo , Julia Sanz-Justo , David Camacho

The level-set method is a prominent approach to modelling the evolution of a fire over time based on a characterised rate of spread. It however does not provide a direct means for assimilating new data and quantifying uncertainty. Fire…

Applications · Statistics 2022-06-20 Joel Janek Dabrowski , Carolyn Huston , James Hilton , Stephane Mangeon , Petra Kuhnert

The current projection shows that much of the continental U.S. will have significantly hotter and drier days in the following decades, leading to more wildfire hazards that threaten the safety of power grid. Unfortunately, the U.S. power…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-03 Guanzhou Wei , Feng Qiu , Xiao Liu

Forecasting multivariate time series data, which involves predicting future values of variables over time using historical data, has significant practical applications. Although deep learning-based models have shown promise in this field,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-16 Zahra Fatemi , Minh Huynh , Elena Zheleva , Zamir Syed , Xiaojun Di

Wildfire prediction is important for early warning and resource allocation, yet existing Earth foundation models (Earth FMs) are pretrained for general atmospheric and geophysical objectives rather than wildfire forecasting. To address this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Yangshuang Xu , Yuyang Dai , Liling Chang , Qi Wang , Yushun Dong

Climate change has largely impacted our daily lives. As one of its consequences, we are experiencing more wildfires. In the year 2020, wildfires burned a record number of 8,888,297 acres in the US. To awaken people's attention to climate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-23 Yang Li , Hermawan Mulyono , Ying Chen , Zhiyin Lu , Desmond Chan

Predictive modelling is vital to guide preventive efforts. Whilst large-scale prospective cohort studies and a diverse toolkit of available machine learning (ML) algorithms have facilitated such survival task efforts, choosing the…

This paper proposes a generalised and robust multi-factor Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) based Deep Learning (DL) model to forecast electricity load in distribution networks during wildfire seasons. The flexible modelling methods consider data…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-04-24 Weijia Yang , Sarah N. Sparrow , David C. H. Wallom

Wildfire forecasting has been one of the most critical tasks that humanities want to thrive. It plays a vital role in protecting human life. Wildfire prediction, on the other hand, is difficult because of its stochastic and chaotic…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Thai-Nam Hoang , Sang Truong , Chris Schmidt

Predictions of thunderstorm-related hazards are needed in several sectors, including first responders, infrastructure management and aviation. To address this need, we present a deep learning model that can be adapted to different hazard…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-03-16 Jussi Leinonen , Ulrich Hamann , Ioannis V. Sideris , Urs Germann

The increasing incidence and severity of wildfires underscores the necessity of accurately predicting their behavior. While high-fidelity models derived from first principles offer physical accuracy, they are too computationally expensive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-01 John Burge , Matthew R. Bonanni , R. Lily Hu , Matthias Ihme

This paper investigates two environmental applications related to climate change, where observations consist of bounded counts. The binomial and beta-binomial (BB) models are commonly used for bounded count data, with the BB model offering…

As the impact of wildfires has become increasingly more severe over the last decades, there is continued pressure for improvements in our ability to predict wildland fire behavior over a wide range of conditions. One approach towards this…

Wildfire burned-area mapping is essential for damage assessment, emissions modeling, and understanding fire-climate interactions across diverse ecological regions. Recent geospatial foundation models provide strong general-purpose…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Ali Shibli , Andrea Nascetti , Yifang Ban
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