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Marginal structural models (MSM) with inverse probability weighting (IPW) are used to estimate causal effects of time-varying treatments, but can result in erratic finite-sample performance when there is low overlap in covariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-16 Shirley Liao , Lucas Henneman , Corwin Zigler

A new method for estimating the conditional average treatment effect is proposed in the paper. It is called TNW-CATE (the Trainable Nadaraya-Watson regression for CATE) and based on the assumption that the number of controls is rather large…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-20 Andrei V. Konstantinov , Stanislav R. Kirpichenko , Lev V. Utkin

Observational epidemiological studies commonly seek to estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. Adjustment for potential confounding bias in modern studies is challenging due to the presence of high-dimensional confounding,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-29 Susan Ellul , Stijn Vansteelandt , John B. Carlin , Margarita Moreno-Betancur

This paper proposes a new method for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in randomized experiments. We adopt inverse probability weighting (IPW) for identification; however, IPW-transformed outcomes are known to be…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-14 Mingqian Guan , Komei Fujita , Naoya Sueishi , Shota Yasui

This study proposes a Transformer-based longitudinal modeling method to address challenges in clinical risk classification with heterogeneous Electronic Health Record (EHR) data, including irregular temporal patterns, large modality…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-07 Anzhuo Xie , Wei-Chen Chang

Estimating how a treatment affects different individuals, known as heterogeneous treatment effect estimation, is an important problem in empirical sciences. In the last few years, there has been a considerable interest in adapting machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-18 Christopher Tran , Keith Burghardt , Kristina Lerman , Elena Zheleva

Causal learning is the key to obtaining stable predictions and answering \textit{what if} problems in decision-makings. In causal learning, it is central to seek methods to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) from observational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-07 Yiyan Huang , Cheuk Hang Leung , Qi Wu , Xing Yan

Orthogonal statistical learning and double machine learning have emerged as general frameworks for two-stage statistical prediction in the presence of a nuisance component. We establish non-asymptotic bounds on the excess risk of orthogonal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Lang Liu , Carlos Cinelli , Zaid Harchaoui

In recent years, there has been growing interest in causal machine learning estimators for quantifying subject-specific effects of a binary treatment on time-to-event outcomes. Estimation approaches have been proposed which attenuate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-30 Matthew Pryce , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Ruth H. Keogh , Stijn Vansteelandt

Estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) plays an essential role in modern medicine by informing treatment decision-making at a patient level. Several metalearners have been proposed recently to estimate CATEs in an…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-07 Yizhe Xu , Nikolaos Ignatiadis , Erik Sverdrup , Scott Fleming , Stefan Wager , Nigam Shah

Modern deep neural networks can easily overfit to biased training data containing corrupted labels or class imbalance. Sample re-weighting methods are popularly used to alleviate this data bias issue. Most current methods, however, require…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-02 Jun Shu , Xiang Yuan , Deyu Meng , Zongben Xu

There is a growing interest in estimating heterogeneous treatment effects across individuals using their high-dimensional feature attributes. Achieving high performance in such high-dimensional heterogeneous treatment effect estimation is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-04 Yoichi Chikahara , Kansei Ushiyama

Meta-learning is a popular approach for learning new tasks with limited data by leveraging the commonalities among different tasks. However, meta-learned models can perform poorly when context data is too limited, or when data is drawn from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-10 Young-Jin Park , Cesar Almecija , Apoorva Sharma , Navid Azizan

In many social, behavioral, and biomedical sciences, treatment effect estimation is a crucial step in understanding the impact of an intervention, policy, or treatment. In recent years, an increasing emphasis has been placed on…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Xinhai Zhang , Xingye Qiao

Treatment effect heterogeneity plays an important role in many areas of causal inference and within recent years, estimation of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) has received much attention in the statistical community. While…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-17 Simon Christoffer Ziersen , Torben Martinussen

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in survival settings is complicated by right censoring as well as the time-varying nature of the estimand. While the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) provides a natural target, most…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Yuming Sun , Jian Kang , Yi Li

Continual learning has emerged as a pivotal area of research, primarily due to its advantageous characteristic that allows models to persistently acquire and retain information. However, catastrophic forgetting can severely impair model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-28 KaiHui Huang , RunQing Wu , JinHui Sheng , HanYi Zhang , Ling Ge , JinYu Guo , Fei Ye

We develop an estimator for treatment effects in high-dimensional settings with additive measurement error, a prevalent challenge in modern econometrics. We introduce the Double/Debiased Convex Conditioned LASSO (Double/Debiased CoCoLASSO),…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-08-28 Geonwoo Kim , Suyong Song

The ability of intelligent agents to learn and remember multiple tasks sequentially is crucial to achieving artificial general intelligence. Many continual learning (CL) methods have been proposed to overcome catastrophic forgetting which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-15 Gehui Shen , Song Zhang , Xiang Chen , Zhi-Hong Deng

We propose Deep Longitudinal Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation (Deep LTMLE), a novel approach to estimate the counterfactual mean of outcome under dynamic treatment policies in longitudinal problem settings. Our approach utilizes a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-09 Toru Shirakawa , Yi Li , Yulun Wu , Sky Qiu , Yuxuan Li , Mingduo Zhao , Hiroyasu Iso , Mark van der Laan