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We propose nonparametric identification and semiparametric estimation of joint potential outcome distributions in the presence of confounding. First, in settings with observed confounding, we derive tighter, covariate-informed bounds on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-19 Jianle Sun , Kun Zhang

Counterfactual explanations study what should have changed in order to get an alternative result, enabling end-users to understand machine learning mechanisms with counterexamples. Actionability is defined as the ability to transform the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Enrique Valero-Leal , Pedro Larrañaga , Concha Bielza

Counterfactual explanations for black-box models aim to pr ovide insight into an algorithmic decision to its recipient. For a binary classification problem an individual counterfactual details which features might be changed for the model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-29 James M. Adams , Gesine Reinert , Lukasz Szpruch , Carsten Maple , Andrew Elliott

Complex, high-dimensional data is used in a wide range of domains to explore problems and make decisions. Analysis of high-dimensional data, however, is vulnerable to the hidden influence of confounding variables, especially as users apply…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2022-07-01 Smiti Kaul , David Borland , Nan Cao , David Gotz

Counterfactual explanation is a form of interpretable machine learning that generates perturbations on a sample to achieve the desired outcome. The generated samples can act as instructions to guide end users on how to observe the desired…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Tri Dung Duong , Qian Li , Guandong Xu

We introduce an approach to counterfactual inference based on merging information from multiple datasets. We consider a causal reformulation of the statistical marginal problem: given a collection of marginal structural causal models (SCMs)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-07-18 Luigi Gresele , Julius von Kügelgen , Jonas M. Kübler , Elke Kirschbaum , Bernhard Schölkopf , Dominik Janzing

As data-driven predictive models are increasingly used to inform decisions, it has been argued that decision makers should provide explanations that help individuals understand what would have to change for these decisions to be beneficial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-15 Stratis Tsirtsis , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

Machine learning models that operate on graph-structured data, such as molecular graphs or social networks, often make accurate predictions but offer little insight into why certain predictions are made. Counterfactual explanations address…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-21 David Bechtoldt , Sidney Bender

Counterfactual explanations are one of the most popular methods to make predictions of black box machine learning models interpretable by providing explanations in the form of `what-if scenarios'. Most current approaches optimize a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-16 Susanne Dandl , Christoph Molnar , Martin Binder , Bernd Bischl

Contrastive learning is a cornerstone underlying recent progress in multi-view and multimodal learning, e.g., in representation learning with image/caption pairs. While its effectiveness is not yet fully understood, a line of recent work…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-17 Imant Daunhawer , Alice Bizeul , Emanuele Palumbo , Alexander Marx , Julia E. Vogt

The notion of concept drift refers to the phenomenon that the distribution, which is underlying the observed data, changes over time; as a consequence machine learning models may become inaccurate and need adjustment. While there do exist…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-24 Fabian Hinder , Barbara Hammer

In this paper we propose a causal analog to the purely observational Dynamic Bayesian Networks, which we call Dynamic Causal Networks. We provide a sound and complete algorithm for identification of Dynamic Causal Net- works, namely, for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-10-19 Gilles Blondel , Marta Arias , Ricard Gavaldà

Structural causal models provide a unified semantics for interventions and counterfactuals, but most identifiability results rely on restrictive assumptions like global monotonicity, which are often violated in embodied interaction, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Pengcheng Tan , Jiang Chen , Dehui Du

We consider the problem of causal inference based on observational data (or the related missing data problem) with a binary or discrete treatment variable. In that context, we study inference for the counterfactual density functions and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-13 Daeyoung Ham , Ted Westling , Charles R. Doss

Learning-based autonomous driving systems are trained mostly on incident-free data, offering little guidance near safety-performance boundaries. Real crash reports contain precisely the contrastive evidence needed, but they are hard to use:…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Jay Patrikar , Apoorva Sharma , Sushant Veer , Boyi Li , Sebastian Scherer , Marco Pavone

We consider counterfactual explanations, the problem of minimally adjusting features in a source input instance so that it is classified as a target class under a given classifier. This has become a topic of recent interest as a way to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Miguel Á. Carreira-Perpiñán , Suryabhan Singh Hada

Causal inference quantifies cause-effect relationships by estimating counterfactual parameters from data. This entails using \emph{identification theory} to establish a link between counterfactual parameters of interest and distributions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-17 Jaron J. R. Lee , Ilya Shpitser

Counterfactual learning has become promising for understanding and modeling causality in complex and dynamic systems. This paper presents a novel method for counterfactual learning in the context of multivariate time series analysis and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Gianlucca Zuin , Adriano Veloso

Difference-in-differences (DiD) identification relies mainly on a parallel trends assumption about untreated potential outcomes. Researchers often relax this assumption by assuming conditional parallel trends within units with the same…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Daniela Rodrigues , Laura A. Hatfield

Counterfactual explanations (CE) explain model decisions by identifying input modifications that lead to different predictions. Most existing methods operate at the instance level. Distributional Counterfactual Explanations (DCE) extend…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Yikai Gu , Lele Cao , Bo Zhao , Lei Lei , Lei You