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Counterfactual explanations utilize feature perturbations to analyze the outcome of an original decision and recommend an actionable recourse. We argue that it is beneficial to provide several alternative explanations rather than a single…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-24 Natraj Raman , Daniele Magazzeni , Sameena Shah

Motivated by the burgeoning interest in cross-domain learning, we present a novel generative modeling challenge: generating counterfactual samples in a target domain based on factual observations from a source domain. Our approach operates…

We propose a formal model for counterfactual estimation with unobserved confounding in "data-rich" settings, i.e., where there are a large number of units and a large number of measurements per unit. Our model provides a bridge between the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-03 Alberto Abadie , Anish Agarwal , Devavrat Shah

Counterfactual explanations have been a popular method of post-hoc explainability for a variety of settings in Machine Learning. Such methods focus on explaining classifiers by generating new data points that are similar to a given…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-21 Joshua Nathaniel Williams , Anurag Katakkar , Hoda Heidari , J. Zico Kolter

Interpretable machine learning seeks to understand the reasoning process of complex black-box systems that are long notorious for lack of explainability. One flourishing approach is through counterfactual explanations, which provide…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Vy Vo , Trung Le , Van Nguyen , He Zhao , Edwin Bonilla , Gholamreza Haffari , Dinh Phung

Counterfactual explanations suggest what should be different in the input instance to change the outcome of an AI system. When dealing with counterfactual explanations in the field of Predictive Process Monitoring, however, control flow…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Andrei Buliga , Chiara Di Francescomarino , Chiara Ghidini , Ivan Donadello , Fabrizio Maria Maggi

Structural models that admit multiple reduced forms, such as game-theoretic models with multiple equilibria, pose challenges in practice, especially when parameters are set-identified and the identified set is large. In such cases,…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-01-29 Nathan Canen , Kyungchul Song

This research addresses the challenge of conducting interpretable causal inference between a binary treatment and its resulting outcome when not all confounders are known. Confounders are factors that have an influence on both the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Sohaib Kiani , Jared Barton , Jon Sushinsky , Lynda Heimbach , Bo Luo

Work in Counterfactual Explanations tends to focus on the principle of "the closest possible world" that identifies small changes leading to the desired outcome. In this paper we argue that while this approach might initially seem…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-25 Rafael Poyiadzi , Kacper Sokol , Raul Santos-Rodriguez , Tijl De Bie , Peter Flach

Counterfactual Explanations are becoming a de-facto standard in post-hoc interpretable machine learning. For a given classifier and an instance classified in an undesired class, its counterfactual explanation corresponds to small…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Veronica Piccialli , Dolores Romero Morales , Cecilia Salvatore

Counterfactual explanations improve the actionable interpretability of machine learning models by identifying minimal changes required to achieve a desired outcome. However, existing methods often neglect dependencies among features, which…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Szymon Bobek , Łukasz Bałec , Grzegorz J. Nalepa

Observational studies are rising in importance due to the widespread accumulation of data in fields such as healthcare, education, employment and ecology. We consider the task of answering counterfactual questions such as, "Would this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-07 Fredrik D. Johansson , Uri Shalit , David Sontag

Personalized decision making requires the knowledge of potential outcomes under different treatments, and confidence intervals about the potential outcomes further enrich this decision-making process and improve its reliability in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 Zonghao Chen , Ruocheng Guo , Jean-François Ton , Yang Liu

Counterfactual explanations provide individuals with cost-optimal recommendations to achieve their desired outcomes. However, when a significant number of individuals seek similar state modifications, this individual-centric approach can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Ahmad-Reza Ehyaei , Ali Shirali , Samira Samadi

The increasing deployment of machine learning as well as legal regulations such as EU's GDPR cause a need for user-friendly explanations of decisions proposed by machine learning models. Counterfactual explanations are considered as one of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-04 André Artelt , Barbara Hammer

We consider identification and inference about a counterfactual outcome mean when there is unmeasured confounding using tools from proximal causal inference (Miao et al. [2018], Tchetgen Tchetgen et al. [2020]). Proximal causal inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-03 Jeffrey Zhang , Wei Li , Wang Miao , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) provide actionable recourse, but most methods assume a static framework with fixed data and a trained classifier. This assumption breaks in evolving data environments, such as data streams, where online…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Marcin Kostrzewa , Jerzy Stefanowski , Maciej Zięba

Recommender systems exemplify sequential decision-making under uncertainty, strategically deciding what content to serve to users, to optimise a range of potential objectives. To balance the explore-exploit trade-off successfully, Thompson…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-07-09 Olivier Jeunen

Counterfactual inference enables clinicians to ask "what if" questions about patient outcomes, but standard methods assume feature independence and simultaneous modifiability -- assumptions violated by longitudinal clinical data. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-25 Jingya Cheng , Alaleh Azhir , Jiazi Tian , Hossein Estiri

Causal parameters may not be point identified in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, information about non-identified parameters, in the form of bounds, may still be recovered from the observed data in some cases. We develop a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-02 Noam Finkelstein , Ilya Shpitser
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