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Algorithms are commonly used to predict outcomes under a particular decision or intervention, such as predicting whether an offender will succeed on parole if placed under minimal supervision. Generally, to learn such counterfactual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-19 Amanda Coston , Edward H. Kennedy , Alexandra Chouldechova

Counterfactual inference aims to answer retrospective "what if" questions and thus belongs to the most fine-grained type of inference in Pearl's causality ladder. Existing methods for counterfactual inference with continuous outcomes aim at…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-12 Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel

Counterfactual inference considers a hypothetical intervention in a parallel world that shares some evidence with the factual world. If the evidence specifies a conditional distribution on a manifold, counterfactuals may be analytically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-03 Juha Karvanen , Santtu Tikka , Matti Vihola

We address the problem of integrating data from multiple, possibly biased, observational and interventional studies, to eventually compute counterfactuals in structural causal models. We start from the case of a single observational dataset…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-17 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , David Huber , Rafael Cabañas

Previous work establishing completeness results for counterfactual identification has been circumscribed to the setting where the input data belongs to observational or interventional distributions (Layers 1 and 2 of Pearl's Causal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Arvind Raghavan , Elias Bareinboim

Counterfactual explanations are the de facto standard when tasked with interpreting decisions of (opaque) predictive models. Their generation is often subject to technical and domain-specific constraints that aim to maximise their real-life…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-10 Kacper Sokol , Edward Small , Yueqing Xuan

Identifying the underlying reason for a failing dynamic process or otherwise anomalous observation is a fundamental challenge, yet has numerous industrial applications. Identifying the failure-causing sub-system using causal inference, one…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-13 Juliane Weilbach , Sebastian Gerwinn , Karim Barsim , Martin Fränzle

The growing integration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) models into high-stakes domains such as healthcare and scientific research calls for models that are not only accurate but also interpretable. Among the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Zhuo Cao , Xuan Zhao , Lena Krieger , Hanno Scharr , Ira Assent

Existing tools for explaining complex models and systems are associational rather than causal and do not provide mechanistic understanding. We propose a new notion called counterfactual explainability for causal attribution that is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-07 Zijun Gao , Qingyuan Zhao

It is often said that the fundamental problem of causal inference is a missing data problem -- the comparison of responses to two hypothetical treatment assignments is made difficult because for every experimental unit only one potential…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-21 Razieh Nabi , Rohit Bhattacharya , Ilya Shpitser , James M. Robins

To reach human level intelligence, learning algorithms need to incorporate causal reasoning. But identifying causality, and particularly counterfactual reasoning, remains elusive. In this paper, we make progress on counterfactual inference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Marc Braun , Jose M. Peña , Adel Daoud

Traditional approaches to data visualization have often focused on comparing different subsets of data, and this is reflected in the many techniques developed and evaluated over the years for visual comparison. Similarly, common workflows…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-02-27 David Borland , Arran Zeyu Wang , David Gotz

Transparency is an essential requirement of machine learning based decision making systems that are deployed in real world. Often, transparency of a given system is achieved by providing explanations of the behavior and predictions of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-18 André Artelt , Barbara Hammer

Being able to reason about how one's behaviour can affect the behaviour of others is a core skill required of intelligent driving agents. Despite this, the state of the art struggles to meet the need of agents to discover causal links…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-03-07 Rhys Howard , Lars Kunze

Optimal transport maps define a one-to-one correspondence between probability distributions, and as such have grown popular for machine learning applications. However, these maps are generally defined on empirical observations and cannot be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-18 Lucas de Lara , Alberto González-Sanz , Jean-Michel Loubes

In production systems, contextual bandit approaches often rely on direct reward models that take both action and context as input. However, these models can suffer from confounding, making it difficult to isolate the effect of the action…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Alexandre Gilotte , Otmane Sakhi , Imad Aouali , Benjamin Heymann

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from observational data is relevant for many applications (e.g., personalized medicine). Yet, state-of-the-art methods build upon simple long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, thus rendering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-06 Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel

Counterfactual thinking is a crucial yet challenging topic for artificial intelligence to learn knowledge from data and ultimately improve performance for new scenarios. Many research works, including the Potential Outcome Model (POM) and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Mingyu Kang , Duxin Chen , Ziyuan Pu , Jianxi Gao , Wenwu Yu

There is a broad consensus on the importance of deep learning models in tasks involving complex data. Often, an adequate understanding of these models is required when focusing on the transparency of decisions in human-critical…

We can consider Counterfactuals as belonging in the domain of Discourse structure and semantics, A core area in Natural Language Understanding and in this paper, we introduce an approach to resolving counterfactual detection as well as the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-05-28 Kelechi Nwaike , Licheng Jiao