English

Simulating counterfactuals

Machine Learning 2024-07-03 v3 Computers and Society Machine Learning Computation

Abstract

Counterfactual inference considers a hypothetical intervention in a parallel world that shares some evidence with the factual world. If the evidence specifies a conditional distribution on a manifold, counterfactuals may be analytically intractable. We present an algorithm for simulating values from a counterfactual distribution where conditions can be set on both discrete and continuous variables. We show that the proposed algorithm can be presented as a particle filter leading to asymptotically valid inference. The algorithm is applied to fairness analysis in credit-scoring.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2306.15328,
  title  = {Simulating counterfactuals},
  author = {Juha Karvanen and Santtu Tikka and Matti Vihola},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2306.15328},
  year   = {2024}
}