Related papers: Mathematical Framework for Epidemic Dynamics: Opti…
Electronic Health Records (EHR) have been heavily used in modern healthcare systems for recording patients' admission information to hospitals. Many data-driven approaches employ temporal features in EHR for predicting specific diseases,…
We consider the problem of controlling an SIR-model epidemic by temporarily reducing the rate of contact within a population. The control takes the form of a multiplicative reduction in the contact rate of infectious individuals. The…
Although modeling studies are focused on the control of SIR-based systems describing epidemic data sets (particularly the COVID-19), few of them present a formal dynamic characterization in terms of equilibrium sets and stability. Such…
Nowadays, epidemic models provide an appropriate tool for describing the propagation of biological viruses in human or animal populations, or rumours and other kinds of information in social networks and malware in both computer and ad hoc…
The robustness of human social networks against epidemic propagation relies on the propensity for physical contact adaptation. During the early phase of infection, asymptomatic carriers exhibit the same activity level as susceptible…
We analyze the optimal control of disease prevention and treatment in a basic SIS model. We develop a simple macroeconomic setup in which the social planner determines how to optimally intervene, through income taxation, in order to…
The global pandemic of the 2019-nCov requires the evaluation of policy interventions to mitigate future social and economic costs of quarantine measures worldwide. We propose an epidemiological model for forecasting and policy evaluation…
The adoption of containment measures to reduce the amplitude of the epidemic peak is a key aspect in tackling the rapid spread of an epidemic. Classical compartmental models must be modified and studied to correctly describe the effects of…
A heroin epidemic mathematical model with prevention information and treatment, as control interventions, is analyzed, assuming that an individual's behavioral response depends on the spreading of information about the effects of heroin.…
We develop a feedback control method for networked epidemic spreading processes. In contrast to most prior works which consider mean field, open-loop control schemes, the present work develops a novel framework for feedback control of…
We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…
This paper analyses the optimal control of infectious disease propagation using a classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model characterised by permanent immunity and the absence of available vaccines. The control is performed over a…
Optimizing the impact on the economy of control strategies aiming at containing the spread of COVID-19 is a critical challenge. We use daily new case counts of COVID-19 patients reported by local health administrations from different…
The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that…
This paper proposes a sequential ensemble methodology for epidemic modeling that integrates discrete-time Hawkes processes (DTHP) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) models. Motivated by the need for accurate and reliable…
Background: The global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic has clearly shown the importance of considering the long-range transportation networks in the understanding of emerging diseases outbreaks. The…
Epidemic risk assessment poses inherent challenges, with traditional approaches often failing to balance health outcomes and economic constraints. This paper presents a data-driven decision support tool that models epidemiological dynamics…
We propose and study a compartmental model for epidemiology with human behavioral effects. Specifically, our model incorporates governmental prevention measures aimed at lowering the disease infection rate, but we split the population into…
In the absence of drugs and vaccines, policymakers use non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing to decrease rates of disease-causing contact, with the aim of reducing or delaying the epidemic peak. These measures carry…
In this study, we present an integro-differential model to simulate the local spread of infections. The model incorporates a standard susceptible-infected-recovered (\textit{SIR}-) model enhanced by an integral kernel, allowing for…