Related papers: The Basic Reproduction Number for Petri Net Models…
During an infectious disease outbreak, public health decision-makers require real-time monitoring of disease transmission to respond quickly and intelligently. In these settings, a key measure of transmission is the instantaneous…
In this paper we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and vaccination coverage $v_c$…
In this paper, we introduce a general numerical method to approximate the reproduction numbers of a large class of multi-group, age-structured, population models with a finite age span. To provide complete flexibility in the definition of…
The effective reproduction number $R_t$ measures an infectious disease's transmissibility as the number of secondary infections in one reproduction time in a population having both susceptible and non-susceptible hosts. Current approaches…
The reproductive number R_0 (and its value after initial disease emergence R) has long been used to predict the likelihood of pathogen invasion, to gauge the potential severity of an epidemic, and to set policy around interventions.…
Basic and instantaneous reproduction numbers, "R" _"0" and "R" _"t" , are important metrics to assess progress of an epidemic and effectiveness of preventative interventions undertaken, and also to estimate coverage needed for vaccination.…
A system of partial differential equations is derived as a model for the dynamics of a honey bee colony with a continuous age distribution, and the system is then extended to include the effects of a simplified infectious disease. In the…
We propose two SIR models which incorporate sociological behavior of groups of individuals. It is these differences in behaviors which impose different infection rates on the individual susceptible populations, rather than biological…
Vector-borne diseases with reservoir cycles are complex to understand because new infections come from contacts of the vector with humans and different reservoirs. In this scenario, the basic reproductive number $\mathcal{R}^h_0$ of the…
Studies about epidemic modelling have been conducted since before 19th century. Both deterministic and stochastiic model were used to capture the dynamic of infection in the population. The purpose of this project is to investigate the…
Infection can spread easily on networks with heterogeneous degree distribution. Here, we considered targeted immunization on such networks, wherein a fraction of individuals with the highest connectivity are immunized. To quantify the…
The main aim of the work is to present a general class of two time scales discrete-time epidemic models. In the proposed framework the disease dynamics is considered to act on a slower time scale than a second different process that could…
During an epidemic outbreak, decision makers crucially need accurate and robust tools to monitor the pathogen propagation. The effective reproduction number, defined as the expected number of secondary infections stemming from one…
The time-varying reproduction number $R(t)$ measures the number of new infections per infectious individual and is closely correlated with the time series of infection incidence by definition. The timings of actual infections are rarely…
The correct evaluation of the reproductive number $R$ for COVID-19 -- which characterizes the average number of secondary cases generated by each typical primary case -- is central in the quantification of the potential scope of the…
Compartmental epidemic models with dynamics that evolve over a graph network have gained considerable importance in recent years but analysis of these models is in general difficult due to their complexity. In this paper, we develop two…
We consider a single outbreak susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and corresponding estimation procedures for the effective reproductive number $\mathcal{R}(t)$. We discuss the estimation of the underlying SIR parameters with a…
We consider a stochastic model of infection spread incorporating monogamous partnership dynamics. In previous work a basic reproduction number $R_0$ is defined with the property that if $R_0<1$ the infection dies out within $O(\log N)$…
We propose a generalization of the adaptive N-Intertwined Mean-Field Approximation (aNIMFA) model studied in Achterberg and Sensi (2023) to a heterogeneous network of communities. In particular, the multigroup aNIMFA model describes the…
Concentrations of pathogen genomes measured in wastewater have recently become available as a new data source to use when modeling the spread of infectious diseases. One promising use for this data source is inference of the effective…