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The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic has instigated unprecedented changes in many countries around the globe, putting a significant burden on the health sectors, affecting the macro economic conditions, and altering social interactions…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-07-23 Dmitry Gordeev , Philipp Singer , Marios Michailidis , Mathias Müller , SriSatish Ambati

Data scarcity and discontinuity are common occurrences in the healthcare and epidemiological dataset and often need help in forming an educative decision and forecasting the upcoming scenario. Often, these data are stored as monthly/yearly…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2023-04-25 Mahadee Al Mobin , Md. Kamrujjaman

Modelling epidemic events such as COVID-19 cases in both time and space dimensions is an important but challenging task. Building on in-depth review and assessment of two popular graph neural network (GNN)-based regional epidemic…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-20 Xiangxin Kong , Hang Wang , Yutong Li , Yanghao Chen , Zudi Lu

Weather forecasting is a crucial task for meteorologic research, with direct social and economic impacts. Recently, data-driven weather forecasting models based on deep learning have shown great potential, achieving superior performance…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-08-26 Lihao Gan , Xin Man , Chenghong Zhang , Jie Shao

Epidemic forecasting is the key to effective control of epidemic transmission and helps the world mitigate the crisis that threatens public health. To better understand the transmission and evolution of epidemics, we propose EpiGNN, a graph…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-08-25 Feng Xie , Zhong Zhang , Liang Li , Bin Zhou , Yusong Tan

Influenza A is responsible for 290,000 to 650,000 respiratory deaths a year, though this estimate is an improvement from years past due to improvements in sanitation, healthcare practices, and vaccination programs. In this study, we perform…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Edmund F. Agyemang , Hansapani Rodrigo , Vincent Agbenyeavu

Mathematical modeling of disease outbreaks can infer the future trajectory of an epidemic, which can inform policy decisions. Another task is inferring the origin of a disease, which is relatively difficult with current mathematical models.…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-08-31 Mehrad Ansari , David Soriano-Paños , Gourab Ghoshal , Andrew D. White

The U.S. COVID-19 Forecast Hub aggregates forecasts of the short-term burden of COVID-19 in the United States from many contributing teams. We study methods for building an ensemble that combines forecasts from these teams. These…

New coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has constituted a global pandemic and has spread to most countries and regions in the world. By understanding the development trend of a regional epidemic, the epidemic can be controlled using the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-05-15 Bingjie Yan , Xiangyan Tang , Boyi Liu , Jun Wang , Yize Zhou , Guopeng Zheng , Qi Zou , Yao Lu , Wenxuan Tu

Time series forecasting has attracted significant attention, leading to the de-velopment of a wide range of approaches, from traditional statistical meth-ods to advanced deep learning models. Among them, the Auto-Regressive Integrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Thanh Son Nguyen , Van Thanh Nguyen , Dang Minh Duc Nguyen

Development of air pollution models for large regions is a priority for population-based epidemiologic studies. The rapid development of big data information systems and machine learning algorithms have opened new grounds for refinements of…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-18 Manuel Ribeiro

As the global HIV pandemic enters its fourth decade, increasing numbers of surveillance sites have been established which allows countries to look into the epidemics at a finer scale, e.g. at sub-national levels. Currently, the epidemic…

Applications · Statistics 2015-08-27 Le Bao , Xiaoyue Niu , Mary Mahy , Peter D. Ghys

Our work focuses on the problem of predicting the transfer of pediatric patients from the general ward of a hospital to the pediatric intensive care unit. Using data collected over 5.5 years from the electronic health records of two medical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-07-18 Jonathan Rubin , Cristhian Potes , Minnan Xu-Wilson , Junzi Dong , Asif Rahman , Hiep Nguyen , David Moromisato

The effect of public health interventions on an epidemic are often estimated by adding the intervention to epidemic models. During the Covid-19 epidemic, numerous papers used such methods for making scenario predictions. The majority of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-16 Heejong Bong , Valérie Ventura , Larry Wasserman

During outbreaks of serious infectious diseases many individuals closely follow media reports of the outbreak and take steps, including self-isolation, to protect themselves from infection and possibly death. Self-isolation can take many…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2011-03-22 Anna Mummert , Howard Weiss

This paper presents a Koopman-based framework for early outbreak detection and intervention selection in a multi-agent epidemic simulation. Agents exhibit mobility patterns, heterogeneous susceptibility, immunity-dependent viral load…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Florin Leon

The COVID-19 pandemic represents the most significant public health disaster since the 1918 influenza pandemic. During pandemics such as COVID-19, timely and reliable spatio-temporal forecasting of epidemic dynamics is crucial. Deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Lijing Wang , Aniruddha Adiga , Srinivasan Venkatramanan , Jiangzhuo Chen , Bryan Lewis , Madhav Marathe

The rapid growth in wireless infrastructure has increased the need to accurately estimate and forecast electromagnetic field (EMF) levels to ensure ongoing compliance, assess potential health impacts, and support efficient network planning.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Zijiang Yan , Yixiang Huang , Jianhua Pei , Hina Tabassum , Luca Chiaraviglio

We investigate ensembling techniques in forecasting and examine their potential for use in nonseasonal time-series similar to those in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Developing improved forecast methods is essential as they…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-04 Pieter Cawood , Terence L. van Zyl

Background: Following the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic in early 2020, municipalities, regional governments and policymakers worldwide had to plan their Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) amidst a scenario of great uncertainty.…