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Understanding the dynamics of the spread of diseases within populations is critical for effective public health interventions. We extend the classical SIR model by incorporating additional complexities such as the introduction of a cure and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-10-30 Daniel Perkins , Davis Hunter , Drake Brown , Trevor Garrity , Wyatt Pochman

Mathematical models of the real world are simplified representations of complex systems. A caveat to using mathematical models is that predicted causal effects and conditional independences may not be robust under model extensions, limiting…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-30 Tineke Blom , Joris M. Mooij

Background. Forecasting the time of forthcoming pandemic reduces the impact of diseases by taking precautionary steps such as public health messaging and raising the consciousness of doctors. With the continuous and rapid increase in the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-12 Muhammad Naeem , Jian Yu , Muhammad Aamir , Sajjad Ahmad Khan , Olayinka Adeleye , Zardad Khan

We introduce a methodology to guarantee safety against the spread of infectious diseases by viewing epidemiological models as control systems and by considering human interventions (such as quarantining or social distancing) as control…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-21 Tamas G. Molnar , Andrew W. Singletary , Gabor Orosz , Aaron D. Ames

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant changes in how people are currently living their lives. To determine how to best reduce the effects of the pandemic and start reopening societies, governments have drawn insights from…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2020-09-08 Heather Z. Brooks , Unchitta Kanjanasaratool , Yacoub H. Kureh , Mason A. Porter

Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Luke Murray Kearney , Emma L Davis , Matt J Keeling

COVID-19 has been a public health emergency of international concern since early 2020. Reliable forecasting is critical to diminish the impact of this disease. To date, a large number of different forecasting models have been proposed,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-04 Yun Zhao , Yuqing Wang , Junfeng Liu , Haotian Xia , Zhenni Xu , Qinghang Hong , Zhiyang Zhou , Linda Petzold

The dramatic outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics and its ongoing progression boosted the scientific community's interest in epidemic modeling and forecasting. The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-24 Dimiter Prodanov

The COVID-19 pandemic response relied heavily on statistical and machine learning models to predict key outcomes such as case prevalence and fatality rates. These predictions were instrumental in enabling timely public health interventions…

Accurate prediction of clinical outcomes using Electronic Health Records (EHRs) is critical for early intervention, efficient resource allocation, and improved patient care. EHRs contain multimodal data, including both structured data and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-29 Rituparna Datta , Jiaming Cui , Zihan Guan , Vishal G. Reddy , Joshua C. Eby , Gregory Madden , Rupesh Silwal , Anil Vullikanti

Data assimilation is used to optimally fit a classical epidemiology model to the Johns Hopkins data of the Covid-19 pandemic. The optimisation is based on the confirmed cases and confirmed deaths. This is the only data available with…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-03-31 Jörn Lothar Sesterhenn

In this paper, we propose a realistic mathematical model taking into account the mutual interference among the interacting populations. This model attempts to describe the control (vaccination) function as a function of the number of…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2016-11-18 V. Sree Hari Rao , M. Naresh Kumar

Epidemic modeling is an essential tool to understand the spread of the novel coronavirus and ultimately assist in disease prevention, policymaking, and resource allocation. In this article, we establish a state of the art interface between…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-17 Li Wang , Guannan Wang , Lei Gao , Xinyi Li , Shan Yu , Myungjin Kim , Yueying Wang , Zhiling Gu

Epidemic is a rapid and wide spread of infectious disease threatening many lives and economy damages. It is important to fore-tell the epidemic lifetime so to decide on timely and remedic actions. These measures include closing borders,…

Public health surveillance systems often fail to detect emerging infectious diseases, particularly in resource limited settings. By integrating relevant clinical and internet-source data, we can close critical gaps in coverage and…

Applications · Statistics 2019-03-05 Kai Liu , Ravi Srinivasan , Lauren Ancel Meyers

In this work, we propose a data augmentation strategy aimed at improving the training phase of neural networks and, consequently, the accuracy of their predictions. Our approach relies on generating synthetic data through a suitable…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-11-17 Giacomo Dimarco , Federica Ferrarese , Lorenzo Pareschi

Augmentation of disease diagnosis and decision-making in healthcare with machine learning algorithms is gaining much impetus in recent years. In particular, in the current epidemiological situation caused by COVID-19 pandemic, swift and…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Leopold Franz , Yash Raj Shrestha , Bibek Paudel

The rapid spread of the Coronavirus SARS-2 is a major challenge that led almost all governments worldwide to take drastic measures to respond to the tragedy. Chief among those measures is the massive lockdown of entire countries and cities,…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2020-06-15 Salah Ghamizi , Renaud Rwemalika , Lisa Veiber , Maxime Cordy , Tegawende F. Bissyande , Mike Papadakis , Jacques Klein , Yves Le Traon

Epidemic spread in a population is traditionally modeled via compartmentalized models which represent the free evolution of disease in absence of any intervention policies. In addition, these models assume full observability of disease…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-06-16 Nitin Kamra , Yizhou Zhang , Sirisha Rambhatla , Chuizheng Meng , Yan Liu

Hybrid modelling reduces the misspecification of expert models by combining them with machine learning (ML) components learned from data. Similarly to many ML algorithms, hybrid model performance guarantees are limited to the training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-13 Antoine Wehenkel , Jens Behrmann , Hsiang Hsu , Guillermo Sapiro , Gilles Louppe , Jörn-Henrik Jacobsen