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Given a sample of genome sequences from an asexual population, can one predict its evolutionary future? Here we demonstrate that the branching patterns of reconstructed genealogical trees contains information about the relative fitness of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-11-13 Richard A. Neher , Colin A. Russell , Boris I. Shraiman

Timely and robust influenza incidence forecasting is critical for public health decision-making. This paper presents MAESTRO (Multi-modal Adaptive Estimation for Temporal Respiratory Disease Outbreak), a novel, unified framework that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Hong Liu , Kerui Cen , Yanxing Chen , Zige Liu , Dong Chen , Zifeng Yang , Chitin Hon

Avian botulism is a paralytic bacterial disease in birds often leading to high fatality. In-vitro diagnostic techniques such as Mouse Bioassay, ELISA, PCR are usually non-preventive, post-mortem in nature, and require invasive sample…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-11-18 Narayani Bhatia , Devang Mahesh , Jashandeep Singh , Manan Suri

Graph neural networks have shown remarkable success in exploiting the spatial and temporal patterns on dynamic graphs. However, existing GNNs exhibit poor generalization ability under distribution shifts, which is inevitable in dynamic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Qingyun Sun , Jiayi Luo , Haonan Yuan , Xingcheng Fu , Hao Peng , Jianxin Li , Philip S. Yu

Emerging connected-vehicle (CV) data shows great potential in urban traffic monitoring and forecasting. However, prior CV-based studies on arterial traffic measures prediction are limited to simulated high-penetration scenarios or small…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Lei Han , Mohamed Abdel-Aty , Yang-Jun Joo

This study introduces a novel data-driven framework and the first-ever county-scale application of Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNN) to forecast composite sustainability indices from herd-level operational records. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-24 Surya Jayakumar , Kieran Sullivan , John McLaughlin , Christine O'Meara , Indrakshi Dey

Emerging infectious diseases and climate change are two of the major challenges in 21st century. Although over the past decades, highly-resolved mathematical models have contributed in understanding dynamics of infectious diseases and are…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-10-13 Julia Bicker , René Schmieding , Michael Meyer-Hermann , Martin J. Kühn

This study proposes a nonhomogeneous birth--death model which captures the dynamics of a directly transmitted infectious disease. Our model accounts for an important aspect of observed epidemic data in which only symptomatic infecteds are…

Applications · Statistics 2016-09-09 Jan van den Broek , Hiroshi Nishiura

Since its emergence in 1968, influenza A (H3N2) has evolved extensively in genotype and antigenic phenotype. Antigenic evolution occurs in the context of a two-dimensional 'antigenic map', while genetic evolution shows a characteristic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2011-11-22 Trevor Bedford , Andrew Rambaut , Mercedes Pascual

While a common trend in disease modeling is to develop models of increasing complexity, it was recently pointed out that outbreaks appear remarkably simple when viewed in the incidence vs. cumulative cases (ICC) plane. This article details…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-12-26 Faryad Darabi Sahneh , William Fries , Joseph C. Watkins , Joceline Lega

Disease outbreaks, such as those of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in 2003 and the 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza, have highlighted the potential for airborne transmission in indoor environments. Respirable pathogen-carrying droplets…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-01-10 M. Robinson , N. I. Stilianakis , Y. Drossinos

Perception of auditory events is inherently multimodal relying on both audio and visual cues. A large number of existing multimodal approaches process each modality using modality-specific models and then fuse the embeddings to encode the…

Sound · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Amir Shirian , Krishna Somandepalli , Victor Sanchez , Tanaya Guha

Influenza remains a significant burden on health systems. Effective responses rely on the timely understanding of the magnitude and the evolution of an outbreak. For monitoring purposes, data on severe cases of influenza in England are…

With the acceleration of urbanization, intelligent transportation systems have an increasing demand for accurate traffic flow prediction. This paper proposes a novel Graph Enhanced Spatio-temporal Hierarchical Inference Network (GEnSHIN) to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Zhiyan Zhou , Junjie Liao , Manho Zhang , Yingyi Liao , Ziai Wang

Our recent experience with the COVID-19 pandemic amply shows that spatial effects like the mobility of agents and average interpersonal distance, together with the adaptation of agents, are very important in deciding the outcome of epidemic…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-01-13 Akhil Panicker , V Sasidevan

Modern cities are increasingly reliant on data-driven insights to support decision making in areas such as transportation, public safety and environmental impact. However, city-level data often exists in heterogeneous formats, collected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-15 Takuya Kurihana , Xiaojian Zhang , Wing Yee Au , Hon Yung Wong

Traffic forecasting is essential for the traffic construction of smart cities in the new era. However, traffic data's complex spatial and temporal dependencies make traffic forecasting extremely challenging. Most existing traffic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-03 Wei Zhao , Shiqi Zhang , Bing Zhou , Bei Wang

Recent advances in immunomics have shown that T-cell receptor (TCR) signatures can accurately predict active or recent infection by leveraging the high specificity of TCR binding to disease antigens. However, the extreme diversity of the…

Urban traffic flow is governed by the complex, nonlinear interaction between land use configuration and spatiotemporally heterogeneous mobility demand. Conventional global regression and time-series models cannot simultaneously capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Olaf Yunus Laitinen Imanov

Graph prediction problems prevail in data analysis and machine learning. The inverse prediction problem, namely to infer input data from given output labels, is of emerging interest in various applications. In this work, we develop…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-22 Chen Xu , Xiuyuan Cheng , Yao Xie
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