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In this paper, we introduce a new single model maneuvering target tracking approach using stochastic differential equation (SDE) based on GARCH volatility. The traditional input estimation (IE) techniques assume constant acceleration level…

Applications · Statistics 2019-02-14 Ehsan Hajiramezanali , Seyyed Hamed Fouladi , Hamidreza Amindavar

We give a new proof of the representation of implied volatility as a time-average of weighted expectations of local or stochastic volatility. With this proof we clarify the question of existence of 'forward implied variance' in the original…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-14 Martin Keller-Ressel , Josef Teichmann

The purpose of this paper is to establish the well-posedness of martingale (probabilistic weak) solutions to stochastic degenerate aggregation--diffusion equations arising in biological and public health contexts. The studied equation is of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-07 Mostafa Bendahmane , Mohamed Mehdaoui , Mouhcine Tilioua

The Skorokhod reflection was used in 1961 to create a reflected diffusion on the half-line. Later, it was used for processes with jumps such as reflected L\'evy processes. Like a Brownian motion, which is a weak limit of random walks,…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-21 Andrey Pilipenko , Andrey Sarantsev

In this article, we derive a Stratonovich and Skorohod type change of variables formula for a multidimensional Gaussian process with low H\"older regularity (typically lower than 1/4). To this aim, we combine tools from rough paths theory…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-08-05 Samy Tindel , Maria Jolis , Yaozhong Hu

In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of a structural model for the dynamics of prices of assets traded in a market originally proposed in [1]. The model takes the form of an interacting generalization of the geometric Brownian…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-06-06 Kartik Anand , Jonathan Khedair , Reimer Kuehn

We show that the scaled cumulant generating and large deviation function, associated to a two-state Markov process involving two processes, obey a symmetry relation reminiscent of the fluctuation theorem, independent from any conditions on…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-19 Tim Willaert , Bart Cleuren , Christian Van den Broeck

The existence of global nonnegative martingale solutions to a stochastic cross-diffusion system for an arbitrary but finite number of interacting population species is shown. The random influence of the environment is modeled by a…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-20 Gaurav Dhariwal , Ansgar Jüngel , Nicola Zamponi

The $GARCH$ algorithm is the most renowned generalisation of Engle's original proposal for modelising {\it returns}, the $ARCH$ process. Both cases are characterised by presenting a time dependent and correlated variance or {\it…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Silvio M. Duarte Queiros , Constantino Tsallis

We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-06-24 Andrew Gordon Wilson , Zoubin Ghahramani

Volatility is a key measure of risk in financial analysis. The high volatility of one financial asset today could affect the volatility of another asset tomorrow. These lagged effects among volatilities - which we call volatility spillovers…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-08-08 Luca Barbaglia , Christophe Croux , Ines Wilms

We propose a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model for mixed-frequency data. Our model is based on the mean-adjusted parametrization of the VAR and allows for an explicit prior on the 'steady states' (unconditional means) of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-11-22 Sebastian Ankargren , Måns Unosson , Yukai Yang

Earlier we proposed the stochastic point process model, which reproduces a variety of self-affine time series exhibiting power spectral density S(f) scaling as power of the frequency f and derived a stochastic differential equation with the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-02 V. Gontis , B. Kaulakys

This paper deals with the consistency, a rate of convergence and the asymptotic distribution of a nonparametric estimator of the trend in the Skorokhod reflection problem defined by a fractional SDE and a Moreau sweeping process.

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Nicolas Marie

We analyze in a closed form the learning dynamics of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for a single-layer neural network classifying a high-dimensional Gaussian mixture where each cluster is assigned one of two labels. This problem provides…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-28 Francesca Mignacco , Florent Krzakala , Pierfrancesco Urbani , Lenka Zdeborová

We investigate the volatility return intervals in the NYSE and FOREX markets. We explain previous empirical findings using a model based on the interacting agent hypothesis instead of the widely-used efficient market hypothesis. We derive…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-26 Vygintas Gontis , Shlomo Havlin , Aleksejus Kononovicius , Boris Podobnik , H. Eugene Stanley

Since Hobson's seminal paper [D. Hobson: Robust hedging of the lookback option. In: Finance Stoch. (1998)] the connection between model-independent pricing and the Skorokhod embedding problem has been a driving force in robust finance. We…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-11-15 Mathias Beiglböck , Alexander M. G. Cox , Martin Huesmann , Nicolas Perkowski , David J. Prömel

We study the well-posedness of a coupled system of Skorohod-like stochastic differential equations with reflecting boundary condition. The setting describes the evacuation dynamics of a mixed crowd composed of both active and passive…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-09 Thi Kim Thoa Thieu , Adrian Muntean

In this paper we study a Markovian two-dimensional bounded-variation stochastic control problem whose state process consists of a diffusive mean-reverting component and of a purely controlled one. The main problem's characteristic lies in…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-04-21 Salvatore Federico , Giorgio Ferrari , Patrick Schuhmann

Wave propagation problems for heterogeneous media are known to have many applications in physics and engineering. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in stochastic effects due to the uncertainty, which may arise from impurities…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-02-20 Ching-Shan Chou , Yukun Li , Dongbin Xiu